[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/14/02 1:14:41 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 140611
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
110 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2002

STRONG AND PERSISTENT WESTERN U.S. RIDGE (HEAT DOME) WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN
AND EXPAND EASTWARD NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SHORTWAVE FROM PAC NORTHWEST 
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST AND CARVES 
OUT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN STATES. 

NO REAL CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH FOCUS REMAINING WITH TEMPS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN SHIFTING TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MIDWEEK. 

BENIGN WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH REGION...WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. LOOKING BACK AT 
YESTERDAY...CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO WESTERN ZONES WITH 
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE 
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS AREA MAY SEE CUMULUS EXPAND OVER MORE OF CWA TODAY AND 
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO WARM. AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH 
MONDAY...PERSISTENCE PLUS FEW DEGREES EACH DAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ROUTE 
WITH MODERATING MID LEVEL TEMPS. FWC MAXES STICK OUT LIKE SORE THUMB...
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY (L/M90S) GIVEN LIGHT FLOW LIMITING MIXING. PROGGED LLVL 
THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION FROM SATURDAY SUGGEST MAXES MORE IN LINE WITH 
MAV/MET BLEND...WHICH IS WELL ADVERTISED IN CURRENT ZFP PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE 
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON MINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...THEN GO 
NEAR GUIDANCE ON MINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME 
INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. 
 
AVN...ETA AND UKMET ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING WEAK UPPER LOW SHEARING AND
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MIDWEEK. AVN NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE ON TUE
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF. GIVEN WEAK LLVL FLOW
SLOWER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD SEEMS REASONABLE...AND WITH 
WEAK DYNAMICS WILL BACK OFF ON PCPN CHCS TUE. NOT CONFIDENT MUCH PCPN WILL BE
AROUND TUE NIGHT AS CONVECTION MAINLY DRIVEN WITH HEATING BUT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING IN FAR SOUTH.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. 
  

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

05