[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/13/02 1:59:04 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 131857
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
155 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2002

HAVING HARD TIME FINDING ANY REASON TO CHANGE OR ADJUST ONGOING
PACKAGE...WITH ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES POSSIBLY WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE GRIDS. LARGE SFC RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING BOUT OF FAIR AND MODERATING
WEATHER GOING DAY BY DAY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. RIDGE CENTER RIGHT
OVER CWA TONIGHT AND ITS RADIATIONAL PROPERTIES AND CALM WINDS...
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOWS SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...MAYBE TACKING ON A DEGREE OR TWO HERE
AND THERE IN THE POSITIVE.

SLIGHTLY MODERATING BOUNDARY LAYER AND H85 TEMPS UNDER RIDGE SUNDAY
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS MILDER THAN TODAY...BUT COOLER MAV GUIDANCE HIGHS
STILL LOOK MORE IN LINE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SWING THE GUIDANCE
PENDULUM THE OTHER WAY...AND LEAN TOWARD COOLER FWC VALUES FOR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS. SFC ANTICYCLONE SHOULD TRY AND SETTLE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...ALLOWING LIGHT RETURN FLOW IN LLVLS FOR EVEN
WARMER DAY. AGAIN...LOOKS AS IF FWC OVERDOING THINGS ON THE WARM SIDE
COMPARING PROGGED LLVL THERMAL PARAMETERS AND THICKNESSES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN TOWARD MAV FOR MON HIGHS...OR GO
JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV. BETTER SFC MOISTURE RETURN TO
OCCUR ON TUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.LONGER RANGE(TUE-SAT)...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED IN EARLIER PACKAGE
ISSUANCE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SLOSH BACK UPPER LOW TO NEAR
WESTERN IA BY MID WEEK...AS CANADIAN WESTERLIES KICKER HAS ITS
AFFECT. WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS SFC RIDGE PUMPING MOISTURE RETURN UP
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS RVR VALLEY...RETURNING UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONGOING DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCE. LIKE
EURO AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WHICH MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTH LONGER
OVER UPPER MIDWEST BY WEEKS END...AS OPPOSED TO MRF WHICH DIGS WAVE
OVER GRT LKS FURTHER SOUTH. MRF SUGGEST AMPLITUDE CHANGES ENOUGH TO
BRING NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN OVER THE CWA THU INTO FRI. LATEST
AVAILABLE EUROPEAN MODEL SINGLES OUT THU AS DAY WITH LEAST PRECIPITAL
CHANCE FOR REMOVAL OF REPETITIVE WORDING...BUT AM NOT SURE ENOUGH TO
TAKE OUT CHANCE AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH UKMET AND ESPECIALLY
MRF HINTING AT DIFFLUENT FLOW OUT OF MN POSSIBLY SPILLING ACTIVITY
TOWARD THE LOCAL CWA. WITH LARGE WARM DOME SHIFTING EAST AGAIN THIS
WEEK OVER THE PLAINS...WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER MEX TEMPS. EVEN THESE
WARMER MEX TEMPS(UPPER 80S) MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH...WITH 90S
PROBABLY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

12