[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/13/02 1:14:06 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 130610 CCA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
110 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2002

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW IS ADVECTING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS 
WITH U40S/L50S IN ROCK RIVER VALLEY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW LARGE HEAT DOME OVER WESTERN CONUS...WHILE
PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY.

NO MAJOR CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON TEMPS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN PCPN CHCS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING AND
DRY AIR RESULTING IN VERY COMFORTABLE SUNNY DAYS/CLEAR NIGHTS.
DIURNALS WILL BE INCREASING WITH MAXES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE AND MINS 
1-2 CATS BELOW MAV/FWC GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE WITH SFC HIGH
SETTLING OVER REGION.

MON-TUE...UPPER LOW OVER MO WILL RETROGRADE SOME THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
TOWARD REGION AHEAD OF WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUE ALONG WITH
THREAT OF PCPN. CURRENT FCST HAS CHC POPS TUE AND THIS LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH
AVN IS SHOWING NICE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER POPS ON TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN 
HALF OF CWA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON LATER SHIFTS. 


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.


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