[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/12/02 2:04:00 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 121902
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
200 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

OVERALL...UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR COOL AND WET WEATHER HAS MOVED INTO
MISSOURI WITH SOME CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINING IN SOUTHERN 1/3 OF AREA. UPPER
ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE SLOW PUSH TO SOUTH NEXT 24 PLUS
HOURS WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PUSHING IN FROM MINNESOTA.
SFC TEMPERATURES SLOWED CONSIDERABLY PAST TWO HOURS AS TOP MIXING LAYER
REACHED SUGGESTING MOST AREAS TO SEE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
18Z OBS...OR NEAR FORECAST HIGHS.  LOW DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S
RESULTING IN VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

QUIET FORECAST SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS ONLY ISSUE AND WHEN TO BRING BACK
POPS MID WEEK...

DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...MODELS SUPPORT ANALYSIS OF SFC HIGH TO REMAIN
IN CONTROL WITH CLEARING SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT.  THEN USING BL
TEMPS AND PERSISTENCE FROM TODAY...WHICH HAS WORKED WELL...WILL FOLLOW
HIGHS NEAR MAV THROUGH SUNDAY.  WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD EXCEPTIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LOWS 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW
MAV/FWC BLEND WHICH THIS AM LOWS UNDER CENTER OF THIS SURFACE HIGH IN
MN/WI SUPPORTS. THEN...SLOW WARMUP INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN 50S
AS NW FLOW KEEPS DEWPOINTS LOW IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS BRING HUMID AIR BACK BY MONDAY NIGHT. KEEP NEAR RECORD COOL
WORDING NEAR DBQ AS RECORD IS 51 WITH LOW 50S PROGGED...DRY AIR LIMITS
FOG CHANCES AS LIMITED FOG UNDER SURFACE HIGH THIS AM EXCEPT IN DEEP
RIVER VALLEYS.

.EXTENDED (MON-THU)...UPPER LOW NOW IN MISSOURI TO EVENTUALLY MOVE WEST
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND THEN BE PUSHED SLOWLY NE INTO AREA AHEAD
OF WESTERN US TROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER AND WITH
MORE MOISTURE TO BRING BACK CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL CREATE WAVE OR WAVES TO NW OF AREA KEEPING REGION
VERY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS