[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/22/02 3:12:09 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 220816
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

ANOTHER EXTREMELY BUSY MORNING WITH LINEAR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN 
EXTREMES OF CWA...SOME SEVERE...AND LOTS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH WATER 
PROBLEMS.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING SURFACE FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM SD/NEB BORDER...EAST TO SRN WI...AND TO NRN MI.  
SURFACE WAVES NEAR HASTINGS NEB...MARSHALLTOWN IA...AND EAST OF 
GREEN BAY OVER LAKE.  FRONT HAS ONLY MOVED NOT QUITE 50 MILES SOUTH 
IN LAST 6 HRS...AND DONT EXPECT IT TO MOVE MUCH FASTER OVER THE NEXT 
6.  

MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH 
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH...ALL HINGING ON POSITION OF SURFACE 
FRONT IN NEXT 36 HOURS.

00Z MODELS AGAIN HAVING TROUBLES WITH CONVECTION.  AVN KEEPING FRONT 
TO NORTH BUT THEN PICKING UP SOME SPURIOUS QPF BULLSEYES BY 30 HRS 
WITH A VORT MAX WHICH MAY BE KEEPING FRONT TOO FAR NORTH.  ETA 
APPEARS TO BE DROPPING FRONT SOUTH TOO FAST...PERHAPS AIDED BY 
RAINING ALL THAT HEAVY QPF TO NORTH OF FRONT...MAKING IT STRONGER 
THAN IT REALLY IS.  A COMPROMISE ON THIS MAY BE THE BEST 
SOLUTION...WHICH IS BACKED UP SOMEWHAT BY THE NGM SOLUTION.  WITH 
THESE PROBLEMS AND THE BUSYNESS OF THE SHIFT...WILL ONLY TAKE A 
CURSORY LOOK AT 3RD PERIOD AND BEYOND.  

TODAY...COULD GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTH AS MORE QPF IS 
EXPECTED THERE THROUGH 9 AM...BUT IT SEEMS UNREASONABLE TO DO SO 
WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY OUT.  SO...WILL SIMPLY 
CONTINUE THESE AND ISSUE FURTHER SOUTH AS NEEDED.  WILL ISSUE 
STRONGLY WORDED HWO FOR THIS LATER.  TODAYS LIKELYS WILL GET 
UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL NORTH.  TEMPS IN ALL THAT RAIN WILL BE ON 
THE COOL SIDE NORTH...THOUGH THINK TEMPS COULD GET PRETTY WARM IN 
THE SOUTH.  

TONIGHT...AM GOING TO NEED MORE CATEGORICALS...BUT SOUTH AND CENTRAL 
INSTEAD OF NORTH.  AFTER A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF WAFFLING ABOUT...HAVE 
DECIDED THAT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY...AND A FEW OTHER SMALL 
FACTORS...TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.  QPF VALUES COULD 
BE AS HIGH AS KDBQ HAS SOMEWHERE...BUT LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PIN 
DOWN AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO 
BE OUTSIDE OF CWA.  

COORDINATED WITH DMX...ILX AND LOT...THANKS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE