[LeArc] Special Weather Statement : MLI@ 8/18/02 4:59:46 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS35 KMLI 181004
SPSMLI
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-009-
015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
504 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2002

...RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTHERN MISSOURI
WILL PRODUCE SPRINKLES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 THROUGH MID MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE LIFT PRODUCED BY
THE WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME QUITE STRONG. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. IF SEVERE STORMS WOULD
DEVELOP...THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 4 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

TONIGHT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY DUE TO MOISTURE BEING CONTINUOUSLY ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA. ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE RAIN WILL END DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. AREAS NORTHWEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE SHOULD SEE THE RAIN
END BY MID MORNING...AND ROCKFORD TO KEOKUK BY MID DAY. AREAS EAST OF A
KEOKUK TO ROCKFORD LINE SHOULD SEE THE RAIN END BY MID AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME A GENERAL RAIN OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SOILS NORTH OF AN
OTTUMWA IOWA TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL RECENTLY...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THIS RAIN.
SOUTHEAST IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ARE MORE MOIST FROM A RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT. THIS AREA COULD
EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

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