[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/18/02 3:30:35 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 180833
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2002

IN THE NEAR TERM THE RUC APPEARS TO HANDLE THE CURRENT SITUATION THE
BEST WITH CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
INDICATE THIS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CWFA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE EXTREME
SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE SOME --RA THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT MODELS AGREE ON
DEVELOPING STRONG LLJ WEST OF THE CWFA TO ALLOW SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON. NGM SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS BEST WITH SOME PRECIP
LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST/WEST PARTS OF CWFA BEFORE 00Z. TONIGHT
STRONG LLJ COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE MOST PART CWFA IS FAIRLY
DRY (SAVE FAR SOUTH) AND WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE THE RAIN. WILL MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES BUT DON/T SEE A REASON FOR A WATCH.

PRECIP TO END ABRUPTLY MONDAY...MAINLY WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF
AXIS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
MONDAY NIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS NEXT RIDGE BUILDS INTO CWFA.
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

GUIDANCE TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE BUT MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY TO BE QUITE
TRICKY BASED ON ENDING OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND ILX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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