[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/12/02 2:23:08 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 121925
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
224 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

CWA SITTING IN THE WARM AND STICKY AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN IA...
PRESSURE FALLS OVER MUCH OF CWA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ABOUT TO
COME ACROSS CWA.  SITUATION RIPE FOR SOME SERIOUS CONVECTION.  DECAYING
MCS FROM LAST NIGHT LAYED OUT A BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN CWA.  CONVECTION
ACROSS NWRN IA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.  850MB INDICATING A
BOUNDARY ACROSS CWA THERE TOO...WITH BEST MOISTURE IN A PLUME
EXTENDING FROM TX...TO CNTRAL KS...THROUGH OAX...TO MN.  HAVE MADE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE LITTLE DATA ON SOUNDING FROM OAX THIS MORNING IS
NOT REPRESENTATIVE.  ANALYZED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MATCH WELL WITH
WHAT IS ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 700 AND 500 MB.  REALLY SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER IA ON 250MB ANALYSIS.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPS NEXT TWO DAYS...AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FAIRLY NICELY ON THE MOVEMENT
OF THE ONCOMING FRONT FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY.  ALL BUT THE AVN INITIALIZED
POORLY BY ACCEPTING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BAD DEWPOINT FROM THE OAX SOUNDING
AT 850 MB. FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR RETURNS...DONT SEE HOW SUCH
A LOW DEWPOINT COULD BE METEOROLOGICALLY CONSISTENT.  ETA SEEMS TO HAVE
SMOOTHED IT SOMEWHAT...AS DID THE NGM...BUT THE RUC HAS LOWEST DEWPOINTS
THERE AT INITIALIZATION.  ALSO SOME OTHER MISSING UA DATA FOR ETA/NGM
THAT MADE IT INTO AVN ACCORDING TO NCEP DISCUSSION.  HOPEFULLY 18Z RUNS
WILL HAVE IMPROVED DATA. ON TUESDAY THE AVN SPINS UP THE SURFACE LOW
VERY STRONGLY.  THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR IT

TONIGHT...LITTLE QUESTION ON POPS.  WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL 90 POPS OVER
CWA FOR TONIGHT.  PRECIP SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF THE INITIAL
SVR/NEAR SVR CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE AS THE
MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING. MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A
BREAK BETWEEN WAVES...SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH WORDING.  TEMPS TO BE
CONSERVATIVE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY...CONCERNS WITH HOW SPUN UP THE AVN GETS AND POSSIBLE PROBLEMS
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH OTHER MODELS KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED.  AVN GETS VERY WOUND UP...BUT THINK THAT CONVECTION IS
HELPING THIS TO BE TOO STRONG. AGREE WITH STRONG DYNAMICS BUT QPF
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE FOR EVEN THIS STRONG SYSTEM.  WITH SYSTEM
SLOWING DOWN FROM EVEN LAST NIGHTS RUN...THINK THAT LIKELY ACROSS MOST
OF CWA IS BEST...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF CATEGORICAL IN THE EAST OK.
TEMPS TRICKY...WITH A BIG RANGE ACROSS CWA.  FAR SOUTHEAST MAY GET THE
MOST SUN...BUT WITH RAINFALL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING...TEMPS
WILL BE KEPT DOWN BY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. WILL STICK FAIRLY
CLOSE TO COOL MAV NUMBERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE FRONT SHIFTING OFF TO EAST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP REALLY DROP OFF...THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO A CHANCE UNTIL MIDNIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL DUE THROUGH.   WITH LOTS OF CAA...
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF...THOUGH WILL GO CONSERVATIVE ON TEMPS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY
LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH FOR A GOOD CU FIELD.  COOL TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
WITH WAA NOT KICKING IN AGAIN UNTIL WENDESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.  WILL GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

EXTENDED...THU-MON
MODEL CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THIS MORNINGS AFD BEGINNING TO SHOW UP...
WITH SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BY SATURDAY AM BETWEEN MODELS.  ZONAL FLOW
STILL EXISTS...BUT EACH MODEL RUNS MODERATE SIZED SHORTWAVES THROUGH
IT AT A DIFFERENT PACE.  EXPECT THAT THESE WILL SLOWLY COALESCE INTO A
MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW THAN THEY CURRENTLY SHOW.

ON THURSDAY MODELS RUN A FRESH FRONT TOWARDS AREA...BUT WITH FRONT NOT
MAKING IT INTO THE CWFA. MAY NEED SOME POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP QUITE NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL WARM HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT A WARM FRONT APPEARS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY
00Z UPON WHICH PCPN CAN FOCUS. CHANCE POPS NOT UNREASONABLE. MODERATING
TEMPS REASONABLE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER PASS OVER THE REGION...SO CHANCE POPS AGAIN
REASONABLE FOR THAT AREA. ON MONDAY...FRONT STILL HANGING ABOUT THE
REGION...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MODELS DEPICT. AS
DONT FEEL THIS WILL PAN OUT...DONT QUITE BELIEVE IN POPS FOR MON...BUT
CANT RULE THEM OUT EITHER. AS FRONT NEVER GETS THROUGH AREA...GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPS WILL DO FOR NOW...THOUGH THINK STORY FOR MONDAY WILL BE
QUITE DIFFERENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE