[LeArc] Special Weather Statement : MLI@ 8/12/02 6:13:26 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS35 KMLI 121117
SPSMLI
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-009-
015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-131000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
617 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL IOWA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
GENERALLY FROM 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 65 MPH...WITH LARGE HAIL TO NEAR 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND HAIL WILL
DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE BE FOUND THAN
ANTICIPATED...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S RESULTING IN STRONG TO HIGH INSTABILITY. THIS IN TURN WOULD
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
OF 70 TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTHEAST...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
BACK INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STERLING
ROCK FALLS...TO THE QUAD CITIES AND WASHINGTON...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE
AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING
FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING AND RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.


MCCLURE

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