[LeArc] DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

[Duane Whittingham]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM 25 SW SZL 15 NW STJ 30 ESE BIE LNK 25 W DSM 40 NE MLI 25 SSE
AZO 45 SE FWA 20 WSW LUK 35 SE MVN 20 NW TBN 25 SW SZL.
   
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW JHW 15 E HLG 35 ENE BWG 25 W TXK 35 NE DAL 10 W ADM
20 N BVO 30 ESE RSL 20 SW EAR 45 WNW OLU 30 ENE FOD 30 S MKE
55 N MTC.
   
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 S ABY
40 WNW BHM 40 S GLH 45 ENE ACT 15 ESE SEP 30 NNW MWL FSI
20 WSW P28 55 S GLD 25 ENE ASE 25 ENE CDC 20 ENE TPH 30 NW NFL
80 ESE 4LW 40 E BOI 15 W JAC 35 W CPR 25 ENE AIA 45 SE FSD
30 SSE CWA 15 S APN ...CONT... 25 N BUF 20 WSW ELM 35 E AOO
25 WNW TRI 45 WSW AVL 40 SE SPA SOP 15 NE ORF.
   
---POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES IN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY---
   
...SYNOPSIS...
   
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL RACE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DEEP SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM
NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY 28/12Z.  MEANWHILE...DEEP
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST.    
   
...ERN NEB/SRN IA/NRN MO/CTRL IL...
   
STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH
60 KNOT 850 MB JET OVER MISSOURI.  COUPLED JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN
150 KNOT 250 MB JET OVER JAMES BAY AND 135 KNOT JET OVER OKLAHOMA
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY.  INITIAL AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS.
   
EVOLUTION OF THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAPID ADVECTION BEHIND
THE STORMS ARE THE KEY TO SIGNIFICANCE OF TORNADO AND SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 70 KNOTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS AND DEGREE OF
DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW...POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LONG
TRACK TORNADIC STORMS IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN FORM NEAR SURFACE
LOW TRACK WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG.  
   

   ..CRAVEN.. 04/27/02
   

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Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows
Heard on C-Band Analog Satellite (W0KIE) - GE7-CH5-7.5 mHz
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http://www.tomanddarryl.org