[Launch Alert] Reentry Viewing Opportunity

[Launch Alert]

Weather permitting, people along the California coast may have an opportunity to see a manned spacecraft reentry early Thursday (January 15). The primary landing opportunity is at approximately 12:40 a.m. PST in the ocean west of San Diego. The craft will approach from the northwest and could resemble a slow moving meteor for observers from north of San Francisco to Ventura County. The craft may also produce a sonic boom as it parallels the coast before splashdown.

A second landing opportunity occurs Thursday at about 4:10 p.m. PST with the craft approaching from the southwest and landing in the Pacific west of Oceanside.

For a map of the reentry and landing groundtracks, go to:

https://bsky.app/profile/marcolangbroek.bsky.social/post/3mc6sexwg622r

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The following are e-mails about this event from Launch Alert contributor Rick Baldridge:

"OK -- based on recent data this evening, I believe my prediction for a 12:40am PST Thursday morning Jan. 15th reentry is correct.

Of course, any delay in the undocking will certainly come into play. Until we know undocking about 11 hours before reentry, we can't be sure for certain.

But if all goes to plan, reentry will be visible over California with the capsule passing SF Bay Area at 12:32am PST to our west about 50-degrees high, with the track going over Santa Barbara at 12:34am with the plasma trail almost depleted. Past experience has shown videographers have recorded the reentry close to the LA basin -- IF they know where to look.

Hope you get to see it! I've seen 2 Dragons now heading toward San Diego, and 4 Shuttle reentries (as you know) heading to Kennedy and they are amazing! Early morning I know, but it's an amazing sight!!!

Best wishes and clear skies!"

"If predictions are stable, this coming Thursday morning Jan. 15th, the CREW-11 Dragon capsule will depart from the International Space Station and the reentry will be visible over a large swath of California.

If the current splashdown time of 12:40am PST holds, the reentry will be visible over the San Francisco Bay Area about 12:32am. Just look to the Northwest to spot it early. For San Jose, the capsule reaches highest about 50 degrees high in the southwest as it heads toward splashdown just off San Diego. Weather is predicted to be very good.

(Be aware – a second source puts the splashdown time 15 minutes later, at 12:55am, but that seems unlikely.)

The plasma wake of the capsule will be visible as far south as Los Angles where it fades rapidly.

Nearly identical track reentry videos I took can be seen below. This will give you a good idea what to expect.

https://youtu.be/PnOwbIBKyTE?si=to6GeFUaNQPbhpQM

https://youtu.be/rkG5H3tSQOM?si=AZIRenDOPhQtmK7y

I will update this information closer to the reentry if more information becomes available. There is a chance the time will change a bit, or even happen the following day. There should be a LIVE YouTube feed from NASA / SpaceX of the reentry starting about an hour before splashdown, according the NASA.gov. Just do a search for the YouTube channel.

More info at: NASA, SpaceX Set Target Date for Crew-11’s Return to Earth - NASA

Feel free to forward this email."