[Launch Alert] Surprise Missile Launch

[Launch Alert]

At about 6:10 PST this morning (14:10 UTC), I was driving north on U.S.
highway 101 in Camarillo, Calif. I looked to my left and was surprised to
see a glowing whitish cloud suspended against the deep twilight sky. The
cloud was in the south-southwest and consisted of a convoluted, milky-white
trail surrounded by a very thin, milky-white cloud.

I was certain it was a missile or rocket trail (probably from a solid
propellant rocket motor). It looked very similar to the launch aftermath
from a Minuteman III except that it was smaller (about 10 degrees across)
and it was in the wrong part of the sky for a Vandenberg AFB launch*.

A check with Vandenberg AFB revealed they had not launched anything.
However, this afternoon, the mystery was apparently solved when I received
the following statement from the Missile Defense Advocacy Association:

"Dear Members and Friends,

This morning off of San Nicolas Island off the coast of California, the
United States and Japan successfully tested the newest missile interceptor
in the world. The test opened the SM-3 Block IIA interceptor's new sensor
seeker in space for the first time, positioned the kill vehicle with its new
divert and altitude control rockets on a selected star, and proved out an
initial discrimination capability.  It is a significant accomplishment as
with this success the SM-3 Block IIA moves forward toward three intercept
tests over the next three years before its deployment on U.S. Baseline 9
Aegis BMD Ships and in the U.S. Aegis Ashore Site in Poland in 2018.
Following those deployments, the SM-3 Block IIA will be put on the new
Japanese Kongo-class Baseline 9 Aegis BMD Ships and considered for the
Romania Aegis Ashore Site. This critical test also validates the new sensor
seeker for the redesigned kill vehicle (RKV) of the Ground Based
Interceptor, which will eventually replace all of the United States' current
exoatmospheric kill vehicles (EKVs) in its fleet of GBIs.

The SM-3 Block IIA interceptor expands the range of and provides better
discrimination than the current SM-3 Block IBs, thereby enabling earlier
intercepts and an additional layer of defense. Coupled with the Baseline 9
operating system, the SM-3 Block IIA can launch and engage based on remote
sensors from other Aegis BMD Ships and forward land-based radars such as the
two deployed AN/TPY-2 radars in Japan today.  When deployed, this new
interceptor will greatly enhance the U.S. 7th Fleet and Japanese capability
to defend Japan and become the core interceptor for the defense of Europe in
the Aegis Ashore site in Poland. Iran's continued testing of medium-range
ballistic missiles clearly illustrates the need for this advanced capability
in Europe.

The cooperative development investment of over a billion dollars by Japan
and over two billion by the United States for this new missile interceptor
leads the world in partnership capacity building on missile defense systems.
The shared cost burden for development and joint deployment for mutual
regional defense of the SM-3 Block IIA sets the example and lays the path
forward to the United States and its allies in meeting the growing threat of
ballistic missiles efficiently and effectively."

A missile launch from San Nicolas Island would explain the glowing cloud's
unusual location. Also, the SM-3 missile is much smaller than any rockets or
missiles currently launched from Vandenberg. That would explain the
relatively small size of the exhaust cloud.

The fact that the launch wasn't announced isn't unusual. The U.S. Navy
usually doesn't provide advance notice missile launches to the press or the
public.

Brian Webb

*The remnants of pre-dawn Vandenberg launches are often visible in the
northeast from Camarillo.