[KyARES] Re: [KYHAM] National Disaster Response Plan Needed?

[N4AOF]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Dave" <wa4qal at yahoo.com>
>> The "Category-5-Hurricane-Hits-New-Orleans" has always been
>> one of the "Worst Case" national disaster scenarios -- but no one
>> has ever taken it seriously, most especially not the state of Louisiana
>> or the city of New Orleans.  Just as no one takes "Richter-8.6-or-
>> above-Earthquake-Hits-New-Madrid" seriously.  These
>> are both disasters we have always known WOULD happen
>> someday.  Now that the New Orleans hurricane has actually
>> happened, we will start spending the money to protect the rebuilt
>> city against the next once-in-a-century hurricane (and continue
>> to ignore all the other once-in-a-century natural disasters that
>> are also going to come one of these days)
>
> Human nature tends to recall the last disaster and prepare for it,
> while ignoring the next disaster.  Unfortunately, I'm rather doubtful
> that Katrina has done anything to change that (although I'm willing
> to be happily surprised).

As one example of exactly what you are saying.  Both the state and regional 
plans for a "major" quake at New Madrid come to the conclusion that Kentucky 
has enough shelter space to house all the victims who will need to go to 
shelters.

There are, however, a few small holes in that conclusion:

1) It uses the historically accurate fact that only about 10% of disaster 
victims actually spend a night in a shelter -- most go stay with relatives 
or friends outside the disaster area.  This fails to consider that the 
entire disaster area will be devastated so there won't be other places for 
the 90% who are assumed to be staying elsewhere than shelters.

2) It assumes every identified "shelter" facility has a capacity based 
entirely on square foot area of the facility.  It doesn't matter if the 
facility is a high school gym, a hotel, or a warehouse -- all facilities 
have the capacity calculated by the same formula (which barely allocates a 
cot space per person) with no regard for the physical layout of the facility 
or for needs such as ventilation, sanitation, or feeding capabilities.

3) It counts every identified facility in the entire state -- totally 
ignoring the impossibility of actually transporting large numbers of people 
from western Kentucky to far eastern Kentucky in a timely manner when every 
overpass in western Kentucky will have suddenly become a barricade instead 
of a roadway.

The rest of the plan is similar.  It assumes Louisville is available as the 
primary staging area (yes, Louisville "International" Airport will probably 
still be usable) _AND_ it assumes the availability of a massive pool of 
local disaster volunteers in the Louisville metro area (people who, I 
suspect, may very likely be more interested in their own disaster than the 
greater disaster a  hundred miles to the west.  It assumes the ability to 
discharge all non-critical patients from all Louisville and Lexington area 
hospitals to accommodate victims being brought out by helicopter from the 
disaster area (no word on how these emergency patients will be located).

And the most flawed underlying assumption is that the "Disaster" is limited 
to the area on the map identified as Mercalli IX or greater -- without 
considering the secondary effects of things like destroying the major 
natural gas transmission lines serving the entire east coast, ignificantly 
disrupting the national electrical grid, and ceasing barge traffic on most 
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.  (I have been in several conferences 
where the Cat 5 Hurricane in N.O. was used as a "worst case" example, and 
not once did I hear anyone ever mention a nationwide impact due to 
disruption of gasoline refining and transport or the global impacts of 
closing the Port of New Orleans for several months.)  Major disasters today 
have a far greater reach than we are used to thinking about.

Georgetown may only see a Mercalli IV or even just a III from a major New 
Madrid quake (although it could also be a V) but you will NOT be the happy 
people that the central states earthquate plans all assume -- at least not 
for very long.

73 de N4AOF