[KYHAM] Earthquakes and shaking things up

[Brandon Nuttall]

Folks,

I am a geologist with the Kentucky Geological Survey,
a non-teaching research and public service institute
within the University of Kentucky. While I am not a
seismologist, I am familiar with earthquakes,
monitoring, and notification. I've been silent on this
subject until now only because I've been attending a
professional conference in Calgary, Canada.

First, let me say that regardless of your opinion
whether earthquake notifications should be forwarded
to KYHAM or not, the recent thread served to bring up
the topic of earthquakes. First and foremost, just as
amateur radio operators (ARES and SkyWarn especially)
plan, practice, and prepare for severe weather, we
need to keep earthquakes in mind. Earthquakes
associated with the New Madrid Seismic Zone (including
the Wabash Seismic Zone and other nearby fault
systems) have the potential to be DEVASTATING. With
the cities of St. Louis, Memphis, and others
potentially facing tsunami-like or worse destruction.
We are talking about not only the loss of life and
destruction of buildings, but a collapse of the
infrastructure (powerlines, substations, bridges,
natural gas pipelines, water supply, and others).

The problem is that the recurrance interval of such
destructive events is sufficiently long that it is the
natural tendency of people to forget. How many people
outside of Paducah remember Ibn Browning's prediction
of doom? We need to remember to stay prepared.

Secondly, there are many faster sources of earthquake
information than the KYHAM list. Individual seismic
stations can be monitored in near-real time (data are
refreshed every five minutes) at

 http://www.uky.edu/KGS/geologichazards/equake3.htm

The Center for Earthquake Research Information (CERI)
provides web-based information at their web site
www.ceri.memphis.edu. See especially

 http://www.ceri.memphis.edu/reis/

The USGS has a really great page for keeping up with
seismic activity. It is the NWS for earthquakes. The
main page is earthquakes.usgs.gov. The USGS provides
an easy to find subscription service for notification
of seismic activity in the central US (Actually a mail
list from CERI):

http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/grabbag/quake_cussn.html

Note that this list is only an information broadcast
list. No discussion. The subject line contains a
general classification of the event (Very Small,
Small, etc) and the general seismic zone (New Madrid,
Wabash, East Tennessee, etc.). As has been pointed
out, you can easily delete the little ones without
ever opening and reading the message.

Lastly, prediction. Are there cycles to earthquake
activity? Is a quake of a particular magnitude in one
area an indicator of future activity? We
(seismologists) don't know, but are working on it.
There is no reliable earthquake prediction, only
probabilities that a quake of a given size will occur
within a specified time period. 


In summary:
1) Don't forget earthquakes are a hazard that can
potentially disrupt areas up to thousands of square
miles and millions of people.
2) You must be prepared. For now, a quake will be out
of the blue and you won't know anything about it until
the ground starts shaking (or, if you are far enough
away, you might get an email). At that point, it is
too late to start charging your batteries, checking
your generator, and stocking potable water.

Keep earthquakes in mind.

Brandon Nuttall
KG4RRI


		
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