[KYHAM] Re: Ky ARES Wx Advisory! An UPDATE

[Ron Dodson]

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST
A SLIGHT 
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH 
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
AN 
OWENSBORO TO SOMERSET LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE BOWLING 
GREEN...GLASGOW...AND CAMPBELLSVILLE AREAS.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH 
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT 
NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN 
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS 
ALREADY DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING IN A
LINE 
FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THESE
STORMS 
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE
LATE 
EVENING HOURS.

OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH 
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALSO 
A DRY LAYER OF AIR FORECAST IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL 
BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH DOWNDRAFT WINDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS 
INDICATING A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL
OF 
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE 
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A WARM 
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
FARTHER 
NORTH INTO INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT THERE IS STILL SOME 
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THESE FEATURES WILL EVOLVE...BUT LARGE
HAIL 
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY. IN 
ADDITION ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND 
EVENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. 

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK...AS NEW DATA ARE ANALYZED
THIS 
STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR THE
INTERNET 
FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS. AT THIS TIME SKYWARN SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS 
NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.