[KYHAM] Ky ARES Wx Advisory!

[Ron Dodson]

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST
A SLIGHT 
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS 
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY
SOUTH 
OF AN OWENSBORO TO SOMERSET LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE BOWLING 
GREEN...GLASGOW...AND CAMPBELLSVILLE AREAS.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH 
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT 
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. A 
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER 
ARKANSAS AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
TOWARDS THE 
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH 
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALSO 
A DRY LAYER OF AIR FORECAST IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL 
BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH DOWNDRAFT WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER 
IS INDICATING THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF LARGER THAN 
THREE-QUARTER INCH HAIL...AND A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF GREATER
THAN 58 
MPH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS 
NOW INDICATING A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ALL OF 
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE 
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL 
PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE IS STILL
SOME 
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THESE FEATURES WILL EVOLVE...BUT LARGE
HAIL 
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY. IN 
ADDITION ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. 

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK...AS NEW DATA ARE ANALYZED
THIS 
STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR THE
INTERNET 
FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS. AT THIS TIME SKYWARN SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS 
NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.