[HoustonHam] FW: [VHF] Cycle 24

[Chris Boone]

FYI, from the VHF Mail list and Dave B....

> -----Original Message-----
>
> In light of the 6M DX activity this fall, I thought I would present a
> comparison of the recent monthly solar flux value to those of past
> Cycles.  Solar spot numbers have their place, however, I prefer to
> look at solar flux values as I feel it is a better representation of
> the level of incoming radiation  to the ionosphere.
> 
> First, we tend to believe a solar Cycle is 11 years.  Well, that is a
> nominal value for the duration of a Cycle.  Let us look at the
> duration of recent Cycles (SF min -SF min):
> 	Cycle 19: June '54 - July '64
> 	Cycle 20: July '64 - July '76
> 	Cycle 21: July '76 - June '86
> 	Cycle 22: June '86 - October '96
> 	Cycle 23: October '96 - July '08
> 
> We can see the duration of Cycle 23 was a little long, but not unlike
> what was seen with Cycle 20.
> 
> Now let us examine the monthly solar flux average value for this
> point in this Cycle compared to past Cycles:
> 
> 	Cycle 19: 267.1
> 	Cycle 20: 136.1
> 	Cycle 21: 217.9
> 	Cycle 22: 225.9
> 	Cycle 23: 158.1
> 	Cycle 24: 137.2
> 
> For 6M operators, Cycle 19 is the "gold standard" of F2
> propagation.  At least in the PNW, Cycles 21 & 22 were not that bad.
> 
> History: I recall talking to Stan, W7FFE (SK) many years ago and was
> told he heard (worked?) EI2W back during Cycle 19.  Remember, that
> was on AM with relatively low power and small antennas.  Europe was
> so elusive for so many of us in the PNW for decades afterward.  Then,
> in 2001 Europe was into the PNW again.  Many worked Europe during
> Cycle 23.  Now, Europe is even being worked via summer E from the PNW.
> 
> I stopped counting the number of 6M JA QSOs worked when I reached
> 2500.  Yet, as we got into Cycle 24, JA openings (certainly into
> CN85) have became hard to come by.  But then, JA's are reaching much
> farther east into North America.  My belief for this shift is due to
> our changing magnetic latitude.  The magnetic North Pole is moving
> and apparently shifting the propagation patterns in the process.
> 
> I will admit my earlier assessment of this Cycle was not
> favorable.  So far, the DX that has been in has been better than my
> earlier expectations.  One might want to make comparisons to Cycle
> 20, but I am not sure that would be prudent as I have indicated a
> change in propagation patterns.
> 
> What is constant from previous Cycles is to stay alert to solar flux
> levels, solar flare/CME events and AU activity (tip: flares and
> coronal holes.)  Posting the propagation you have also helps others
> spot ionization clouds.  The visual information available by seeing
> the plots on the propagation maps is a great advantage to operators
> over previous Cycles.  Getting propagation reports on 28.885 years
> ago was primative compared to what is available today.
> 
> So, we shall see what this Cycle actual has for us.
> 
> 	de Dave