[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #2

[Eric W Tuller]

Eric Tuller  N1QKO
Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator for W.Ma.     Ware Emergency Management
Communications
Emergency Coordinator for the MTARTA    KB1HGK Radio Operators for
Missing Childern
CT+ MD+ VT+King Richards Ren Faires



Hello to all
.
 

.Major Nor’easter Expected to Impact the Region Sunday Morning through
Sunday Night with a variety of potential weather threats. Track of the
storm and amount of cold air in the region will both be critical in
defining the precipitation type as well as the timeframe and extent of a
strong to damaging wind threat. Any coastal flood threat appears to
remain minor at this time but is being monitored
.

.A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from late Saturday Night through Late
Sunday Night for Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central and Interior
Northeast and the North Shore of Massachusetts region North of the Boston
area, Northwest Rhode Island and Northwest Connecticut
.

.A High Wind Watch is in effect from Sunday Morning through late Sunday
Night for Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island Rhode Island
with the potential for Wind Advisories to be issued across other parts of
Southern New England
.

.SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely from Sunday Morning
through late Sunday Night
..
 
A Major Nor’easter is expected to impact the region Sunday Morning
through Sunday Night with a variety of potential weather threats. As
always with major nor’easters, the track of the system is very important
and in this case, it is no exception. After a slight eastward drift in
the model runs, they have drifted a bit to the west and bring an inside
runner to the region with the Low passing over Southeast New York,
Connecticut and right through Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire
into Downeast Maine. This usually means snow to a wintry mix to rain for
much of Southern New England but with potentially enough precipitation to
cause hazards across the region. A Winter Storm Watch is currently in
effect for Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central and Interior
Northeast Massachusetts including the North Shore region north of the
Boston area, Northwest Rhode Island for late Saturday Night into Sunday
Night.  While the model runs appear to have this inside runner
forecasted, the models also hold very cold air in at the surface over
much of the Winter Storm Watch area raising concerns for a more extended
period of snow or a wintry mix with only a brief changeover to rain, if
any, over either parts of the Winter Storm Watch area or all of the
Winter Storm Watch area. Typically, such an inside runner would normally
cause a quicker changeover to rain but that is not what the models are
presently indicating. There also still remains a possibility of a more
eastward track of this system if the models are over emphasizing the
intensity of the original low pressure system going into the Ohio Valley
too much or the track of the primary system is further east and this will
need to be monitored closely. 
 
At this time, the Boston-Providence Corridor is expected to see the
potential for advisory level snow and wintry mix maximum before a
changeover to rain. Across Southeast Coastal areas including the Cape Cod
and Islands, after a brief period of snow/ice, the precipitation should
rapidly change to rain but strong to damaging winds could be an issue in
these areas. Again, a track further east would significantly change the
outlook in this region.
 
High winds remain a threat with this system regardless of track and a
High Wind Watch has been posted for Cape Cod and the Islands including
Block Island, RI from Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night. Based on
the current track, two pulses of strong to damaging winds, one with the
precipitation as the low approaches, and the second and possibly stronger
pulse after the storm departs could affect the region Sunday. Other areas
outside of the High Wind Watch may require a Wind Advisory particularly
for the second pulse of wind over the region. A track further east would
bring one continuous wave of strong to possibly damaging winds to the
region. This will continued to be monitored.
 
At this time, any Coastal Flooding is expected to be minor due to the
lower astronomical high tides. Nonetheless, this will continue to be
monitored.
 
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely from Sunday Morning
through late Sunday Night. Further details on the potential activation
will be noted as the details of the storm become better defined.
 
The next coordination message will be posted as the situation dictates.
This means Saturday Morning if any of the Watches are changed or more
towards Saturday Afternoon/early evening if watches are not converted
until that timeframe.  
Respectfully Submitted,
 
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)