[HCRA] Fw: Flood Coordination Message #3

[et-n1qko at juno.com]

 Eric Tuller   N1QKO
Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator for W.MA. M.E.M.A. Region 3 Radio Operator
Emergency Coordinator for the MTARA.  KB1HGK   Radio Operators for
Missing Children
CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "SkyWarn Announcement List" <SkyWarn-list at oak.powersrvcs.net>
To: <Skywarn-list at oak.powersrvcs.net>
Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2005 23:37:41 -0500
Subject: Flood Coordination Message #3
Message-ID: <002701c5373d$b4df4130$6401a8c0 at oemcomputer>

Hello to all....

....Models Continue to Forecast Signficant, Heavy Rainfall This Weekend
That
Could Potentially Result in the Worst Flooding Seen in Portions of
Southern
New England in Roughly the Last 10-20 Years....
....A Flood Watch remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire, All of
Massachusetts Except for Cape Cod and the
Islands, all of Rhode Island except for Block Island, and Northern
Connecticut from 6 AM Saturday Morning until 7 PM Sunday Evening.....
....Potential Remains for 2-3" of Rainfall with Isolated Heavier Rainfall
Axes of 5" across orographically favorable areas and areas where heavier
downpours may train over the same region. This rainfall combined with
melting snowfall from the north and the previous rainfall earlier this
week
that already has some main stem rivers remaining in flood and could
result
in a widespread, significant flood event over a large portion of Southern
New England....
....SKYWARN Activation With Ops At NWS Taunton Has Been Pushed Back Until
Around 1 PM Saturday Afternoon and will last through late Saturday Night
with Follow-Up Ops on Sunday for Main Stem River Flooding. Amateur Radio
Operators and SKYWARN Coordinators are requested to make themselves
available for Hydro Operations This Weekend. One more checkpoint with NWS
Taunton will be completed between 1030-1100 AM Saturday where the
timeframe
could be slightly modified. This is all contingent on movement of the
rain
into the area and how quickly it becomes heavy and begins to cause
more flooding in the region....
....ARES and RACES Groups Should Closely Monitor This Situation. Areas
Hit
Hardest By Flooding May Require ARES and/or RACES Activation. Please
consult
advice from your local Emergency Management Director if involved with
RACES
and with your local ARES Leadership if involved in ARES....

The second powerful spring storm in less than a week will bring another
significant rainfall event to Southern New England. This rainfall,
combined
with the earlier rainfall from the beginning of this week, main stem
rivers
which are still in flood from the earlier rainfall, and further snowmelt
in
our area and to the north, all point to the potential for a widespread
significant flood event for Southern New England. There will be a general
2-3" rainfall over Southern New England with locally higher rainfall axes
in
parts of Southern New England. These higher axes of rainfall will become
more apparent as we get closer to the event. The Flood Watch has been
extended through 7 PM Sunday Evening. Rainfall could continue through
Sunday
Morning and significant flooding could occur well after rainfall has
stopped
particularly along the larger main stem rivers that take longer to
respond
to heavier rainfall.

Rain will begin Saturday Morning and become heavy at times. By mid-late
afternoon, minor-moderate flooding will be possible in portions of the
watch
area with
moderate to potentially major flooding as we get into the evening and
overnight hours across portions of the flood watch area. Now is the time
for
anyone
living near rivers and streams to make preparations on what to do if a
Flood
Warning is issued for your area. Flood Safety Tips were sent out prior to
the first event from National Flood Preparedness Week which was last
week.
Now is the time to treat this as an exercise in personal preparedness
much
like the blizzard and other winter storms from earlier this year. If you
live along a river and stream, have the necessities you need packed and
be
prepared to seek higher ground if required meaning when a Flood Warning
is
issued or if flooding threatens you. If flooding does not threaten, you
will
be prepared in case another threatening situation occurs later this
spring.

Per coordination with NWS Taunton at 530 PM Friday Afternoon, SKYWARN
Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM Saturday
Afternoon
and last through late evening Saturday. Follow-up operations on Sunday
for
main-stem river flooding and any additional river and stream flooding is
expected at this time. There will be one more checkpoint on Saturday
Morning
between 1030-1100 AM to finalize the activation plan for Saturday.
Amateur Radio Operators who have
brought in plastic rain guages for the winter are asked to bring them out
and
have them ready to report rain guage totals. NWS Taunton will be
interested in the following criteria throughout this entire event:

1.) Rain Guage Totals (Every 2" or if 1" of rain occurs in one hour and
final rain guage amounts).
2.) River, Stream, Brook Flooding.
3.) Urban flooding enough to get cars stuck in the road or cause road
closures.
4.) Road Washouts
5.) Flooded Basements and/or structural damage from flooding by rivers,
streams etc.
6.) Dam failures from flooding

Emergency Management Agencies with active RACES programs or with Amatuers
active within their EMA's in other capacities are asked to utilize them
to
relay reports of flooding through the Amateur Radio SKYWARN program
wherever
possible. In addition, updates direct from NWS Taunton can be provided
through the Amateur Radio Network. Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged
to
use the Amateur Radio Network as much as possible for this event due to a
high volume of reports expected for this event. Amateur Radio Operators
who
are willing to look at areas that are possibly in flood from a safe
distance
and not putting themselves in any kind of danger can also be utilized.
Non-Amateur Radio Spotters are encouraged to use the spotter web form and
AOL Instant Messenger by contacting the screen name WX1BOX. This has the
potential to be a long duration SKYWARN Activation and flood event for
the
region.

The next coordination message will be issued by 730 AM Saturday. Below is
the
Flood Watch Statement and the Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Taunton:

WGUS61 KBOX 020314
FFABOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>007-021100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1011 PM EST FRI APR 1 2005

...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 600 AM SATURDAY UNTIL
700 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND EXCEPT BLOCK ISLAND...AND ALL OF
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

THE STORM THIS WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A VERY SERIOUS
FLOOD SITUATION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MODERATE TO PERHAPS MAJOR FLOODING MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND. RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS REMAIN HIGH FROM THE HEAVY RAIN
EARLIER THIS WEEK...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY CAUSE
ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SINCE
APRIL 1987 IN MUCH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER...AND COULD RIVAL THE FLOODS OF OCTOBER 1996 IN THE LOWER
MERRIMACK VALLEY.

RAIN WILL REACH NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE BY 9 AM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NORTHWEST
HILLS OF RHODE ISLAND COULD ALSO PICK UP 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS POSSIBLY GOING
INTO FLOOD SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AND LASTING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING. IF
YOU LIVE OR WORK IN AN AREA PRONE TO FLOODING...TAKE ACTION NOW TO
PROTECT YOUR PROPERTY AND STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS...EVEN IF
YOU THINK THE WATER IS SHALLOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$

JWD

FLUS41 KBOX 012307
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
605 PM EST FRI APR 1 2005

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-021200-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
605 PM EST FRI APR 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TONIGHT)...
THE CONNECTICUT AND ASSABET AND NASHUA RIVERS HAVE GONE BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...BUT REMAIN HIGH.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  THERE IS AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR A SERIOUS AND WIDESPREAD SMALL STREAM AND
RIVER FLOOD EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE THIS WEEKEND. FLOODING THIS WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
THE MOST SEVERE SINCE THE MAJOR FLOODS OF EARLY APRIL 1987 ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT...BLACKSTONE...CHARLES...PAWTUXET AND NEPONSET BASINS AND
COULD RIVAL THE FLOODS OF OCTOBER 1996 FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER
MERRIMACK VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

RAIN WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS. MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS...
WITH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS PRIME
CANDIDATES...MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5 INCHES. VERY SERIOUS AND
WIDESPREAD FLOODING MAY COMMENCE DURING SATURDAY ALONG SMALL STREAMS
AND SMALL TO MEDIUM RIVERS ALREADY SWOLLEN WITH RUNOFF FROM THE LAST
RAIN EVENT. FLOODING OF SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER TO REACH OR EVEN
EXCEED THE APRIL 1987 CREST OF 25.6 FEET. PREPARATIONS CONSISTENT
WITH A POTENTIAL MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
ARE ADVISED.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND ALL WITH INTERESTS ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND
MAIN STEM RIVERS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS
WEEKENDS SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT.

THE WEEKEND STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

POSSIBLE MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY OCCUR ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY...ITS MAIN IMPACT ON HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING.

A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THAT EVENT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN TENTATIVELY SET FOR ACTIVATION FOR
SATURDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT HYDROLOGIC WARNING OPERATIONS.

$$

THOMPSON

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo