[HCRA] Fw: Flood Coordination Message #2

[et-n1qko at juno.com]

 Eric Tuller   N1QKO
Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator for W.MA. M.E.M.A. Region 3 Radio Operator
Emergency Coordinator for the MTARA.  KB1HGK   Radio Operators for
Missing Children
CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "SkyWarn Announcement List" <SkyWarn-list at oak.powersrvcs.net>
To: <Skywarn-list at oak.powersrvcs.net>
Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2005 07:44:56 -0500
Subject: Flood Coordination Message #2
Message-ID: <002a01c536b8$9c394b10$6401a8c0 at oemcomputer>

Hello to all....

....Models Continue to Forecast Signficant, Heavy Rainfall This Weekend
That
Could Potentially Result in the Worst Flooding Seen in Portions of
Southern
New England in Roughly the Last 10-20 Years....
....The Flood Watch Has Now Been Extended. The Flood Watch is now in
effect
for Southern New Hampshire, All of Massachusetts Except for Cape Cod and
the
Islands, all of Rhode Island except for Block Island, and Northern
Connecticut until 7 PM Sunday Evening.....
....Potential Remains for 2-3" of Rainfall with Isolated Heavier Rainfall
Axes of 5" across orographically favorable areas and areas where heavier
downpours may train over the same region. This rainfall combined with
melting snowfall from the north and the previous rainfall earlier this
week
that already has some main stem rivers remaining in flood and could
result
in a widespread, significant flood event over a large portion of Southern
New England....
....SKYWARN Activation With Ops At NWS Taunton is Currently Being Planned
on
Starting at 9 AM Saturday Morning and will last through late Saturday
Night
with Follow-Up Ops on Sunday for Main Stem River Flooding. Amateur Radio
Operators and SKYWARN Coordinators are requested to make themselves
available for Hydro Operations This Weekend. The timeframe for activation
will be fine-tuned after discussions with NWS Taunton Between 4-5 PM This
Evening....
....ARES and RACES Groups Should Closely Monitor This Situation. Areas
Hit
Hardest By Flooding May Require ARES and/or RACES Activation. Please
consult
advice from your local Emergency Management Director if involved with
RACES
and with your local ARES Leadership if involved in ARES....

The second powerful spring storm in less than a week will bring another
significant rainfall event to Southern New England. This rainfall,
combined
with the earlier rainfall from the beginning of this week, main stem
rivers
which are still in flood from the earlier rainfall, and further snowmelt
in
our area and to the north, all point to the potential for a widespread
significant flood event for Southern New England. There will be a general
2-3" rainfall over Southern New England with locally higher rainfall axes
in
parts of Southern New England. These higher axes of rainfall will become
more apparent as we get closer to the event. The Flood Watch has been
extended through 7 PM Sunday Evening. Rainfall could continue through
Sunday
Morning and significant flooding could occur well after rainfall has
stopped
particularly along the larger main stem rivers that take longer to
respond
to heavier rainfall.

Rain will begin Saturday Morning and become heavy at times. By mid-late
morning, minor flooding will be possible in portions of the watch area
with
moderate to potentially major flooding as we get into the afternoon and
evening across portions of the flood watch area. Now is the time for
anyone
living near rivers and streams to make preparations on what to do if a
Flood
Warning is issued for your area. Flood Safety Tips were sent out prior to
the first event from National Flood Preparedness Week which was last
week.
Now is the time to treat this as an exercise in personal preparedness
much
like the blizzard and other winter storms from earlier this year. If you
live along a river and stream, have the necessities you need packed and
be
prepared to seek higher ground if required meaning when a Flood Warning
is
issued or if flooding threatens you. If flooding does not threaten, you
will
be prepared in case another threatening situation occurs later this
spring.

Per coordination with NWS Taunton at 6 PM Thursday Evening, SKYWARN
Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 9 AM Saturday Morning
and last through late evening Saturday. Follow-up operations on Sunday
for
main-stem river flooding and any additional river and stream flooding is
expected at this time. This will be fine-tuned after a call with NWS
Taunton
between 4-5 PM this Evening.
Amateur Radio Operators who have brought in plastic rain guages for
the winter are asked to bring them out and have them ready to report rain
guage totals. NWS Taunton will be interested in the following criteria
throughout this entire event:

1.) Rain Guage Totals (Every 2" or if 1" of rain occurs in one hour and
final rain guage amounts).
2.) River, Stream, Brook Flooding.
3.) Urban flooding enough to get cars stuck in the road or cause road
closures.
4.) Road Washouts
5.) Flooded Basements and/or structural damage from flooding by rivers,
streams etc.
6.) Dam failures from flooding

Emergency Management Agencies with active RACES programs or with Amatuers
active within their EMA's in other capacities are asked to utilize them
to
relay reports of flooding through the Amateur Radio SKYWARN program
wherever
possible. In addition, updates direct from NWS Taunton can be provided
through the Amateur Radio Network. Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged
to
use the Amateur Radio Network as much as possible for this event due to a
high volume of reports expected for this event. Amateur Radio Operators
who
are willing to look at areas that are possibly in flood from a safe
distance
and not putting themselves in any kind of danger can also be utilized.
Non-Amateur Radio Spotters are encouraged to use the spotter web form and
AOL Instant Messenger by contacting the screen name WX1BOX. This has the
potential to be a long duration SKYWARN Activation and flood event for
the
region.

The next coordination message will be issued by 1130 PM Friday. Below is
the
Flood Watch Statement and the Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Taunton:

WGUS61 KBOX 011031
FFABOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>007-012300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
529 AM EST FRI APR 1 2005

...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 700 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING...

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS EXTENDED THE FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 700 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...

THIS FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND EXCEPT BLOCK ISLAND...AND ALL OF
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

THE REGION SHOULD PREPARE FOR A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EPISODE THIS
WEEKEND.  FLOODING THIS WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST
SEVERE SINCE THE MAJOR FLOODS OF EARLY APRIL 1987 IN THE CONNECTICUT
...BLACKSTONE...CHARLES...PAWTUXET AND NEPONSET BASINS AND COULD
RIVAL THE FLOODS OF OCTOBER 1996 FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER MERRIMACK
VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF RAINFALL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT.

A MOISTURE FILLED SPRING STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.  CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY BUT
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS. RIVERS LARGE AND SMALL THROUGHOUT
THE REGION ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HEAVY RAIN
AND THE CONTRIBUTION OF MELTING SNOWS TO OUR NORTH HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS
THIS WEEKEND.

THE UPCOMING STORM WILL PRODUCE A TWO PART HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
FIRST...THE HEAVY RAINS SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE
SMALLER FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS.  URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS WELL AS BASEMENT FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING NOT UNLIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THIS
PAST MONDAY EVENING.

THE SECOND PART OF THE RESPONSE WILL BE ALONG THE LARGER RIVERS IN
THE REGION...INCLUDING BUT CERTAINLY NOT LIMITED TO THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK...BLACKSTONE...NASHUA...CHARLES...NEPONSET
AND PAWTUXET RIVER SYSTEMS.  FLOODING COULD AFFECT COMMENCE ALONG
THESE RIVERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.  THE
HEIGHT OF THE FLOODING ALONG THESE LARGER RIVERS MAY NOT BE REACHED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK
AND CHARLES RIVERS WHERE IT TYPICALLY TAKES SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE
RIVERS TO CREST.

PEOPLE ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE URGED TO BEGIN
EARLY PREPARATIONS.  THOSE PRONE TO BASEMENT FLOODING IN TIMES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RIVER FLOODING SHOULD CONSIDER ACTIONS NOW TO
PROTECT ITEMS THAT COULD COME IN CONTACT WITH WATER.  ALSO...SMALL
DAM OWNERS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE PONDS AND RESERVOIRS HAVE
RISEN TO NEAR CAPACITY SHOULD TAKE TIME TODAY TO ENSURE SPILLWAYS
ARE FREE OF ANY DEBRIS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING.
PLEASE MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND ANY WARNINGS. WE EMPHASIZE THAT
THE STORM THIS WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A VERY SERIOUS
FLOOD SITUATION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

$$

VALLEE/KAB


FLUS41 KBOX 011125
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
625 AM EST FRI APR 1 2005

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-021200-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
625 AM EST FRI APR 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CONNECTICUT AND ASSABET AND
NASHUA RIVERS. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NASHUA RIVER HAS BEEN
CANCELED. PLEASE SEE THE FLSBOX FOR DETAILS.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  THERE IS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR A SERIOUS AND WIDESPREAD SMALL STREAM AND RIVER
FLOOD EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
THIS WEEKEND. FLOODING THIS WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST
SEVERE SINCE THE MAJOR FLOODS OF EARLY APRIL 1987 ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT...BLACKSTONE...CHARLES...PAWTUXET AND NEPONSET BASINS AND
COULD RIVAL THE FLOODS OF OCTOBER 1996 FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER
MERRIMACK VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

RAIN WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING SUNDAY.  SHOWERS
WILL END BY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS. MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH UP TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. VERY SERIOUS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING MAY
COMMENCE DURING SATURDAY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM
RIVERS ALREADY SWOLLEN WITH RUNOFF FROM THE LAST RAIN EVENT. FLOODING
OF SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND ALL WITH INTERESTS ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND
MAIN STEM RIVERS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS WEEKENDS
SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT.

THE WEEKEND STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

POSSIBLE MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY OCCUR ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY...ITS MAIN IMPACT ON HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING.

A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL NOT OCCUR AT THE MOMENT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN TENTATIVELY SET FOR ACTIVATION FOR
SATURDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT HYDROLOGIC WARNING OPERATIONS.

$$

EVT

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo