[HCRA] Fw: Severe Weather Coordination Message #2

[et-n1qko at juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
       WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
    CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo at rcn.com>
To: <rmacedo at rcn.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2004 07:44:38 -0400
Hello to all....

.....Slight Risk of Severe Weather Continues for all of Southern New
Hampshire and Massachusetts along and north of the Mass. Pike for This
Afternoon into Tonight. Damaging Winds and Large Hail are the Primary
Threats. The Area from Northern Connecticut to Northern Rhode Island and
Southeast Massachusetts Should Closely Monitor This Situation....
.....Threat Timeframe is from 3-10 PM this afternoon and evening across
Southern New England.....
.....SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton Are Possible Today....

NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center are in agreeement on a Slight
Risk for Severe Weather across much of Northern Massachusetts and
Southern
New Hampshire today. It appears that the greatest threat for today is
along
and north of the Mass. Pike though areas south of the Mass. Pike should
closely monitor the situation for today.

Instability parameters for today are extreme with the intense heat and
humidity that is over the area and a large temperature contrast ahead of
the
cold front/pre-frontal trough versus behind the cold front. Hail
parameters
are very conducive for large hail over the region. Shear profiles are
marginal but appear sufficient with such a thermodynamically unstable
environment to support severe weather development later this afternoon
and
evening. A Cap will prevent any activity from firing until early to mid
afternoon. Once this Cap breaks, thunderstorms will break out first in
Western Massachusetts and Southwest New Hamphsire and then spread east
into
Northeastern Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire as the day wears
on.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats with the
activity
today. It is possible that if any activity gets organized south of the
Mass.
Pike that damaging winds and large hail could occur in this area but
right
now the primary threat is along and north of the Mass. Pike.

The threat timeframe looks to be from 3-10 PM today across Southern New
England. It is possible that an isolated severe thunderstorm or two could
occur after 10 PM into Thursday Morning but the atmosphere should
stabilize
as we get towards late tonight and Thursday Morning making thunderstorms
that form more of the garden variety activity. SKYWARN Coordinators and
Spotters should closely monitor this situation. SKYWARN Activation with
Ops
at NWS Taunton are possible today. This will be the last coordination
message on today's event. Pages will be sent throughout the day to update
the threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous
Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion and Storm Prediction Center
Day-1
Convective Outlook:

WWUS81 KBOX 090845
SPSBOX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004



MAZ002>007-026-NHZ011-012-015-091500-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
444 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY.  THE
AFTERNOON HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.  SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.   THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.

$$

BELK

FLUS41 KBOX 090819
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
420 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-101200-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
420 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO 100 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ON THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE LATE IN
THE DAY AS FAR SOUTH AS HARTFORD AND PROVIDENCE.  THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN 4 PM
AND 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE MASS TURNPIKE
THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM 3 PM UNTIL 10 PM DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS TODAY AND BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX

$$

JWD

FXUS61 KBOX 090813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTH.

THE PROBLEM OF TODAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN SOME
SPOTS...COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AREA OF GREATEST
RISK THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 IN NORTHEAST MA.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL WITH A WET BULB ZERO LINE
GENERALLY 9000-9500 FT.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE
SHEAR PROFILE FAVORS MORE OF A PULSE OR MULTICELL STORM TYPE.

COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT.  A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST INTO OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING...EVEN NORTH OF THE FRONT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY GOOD...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE.


.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ETA/GFS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL POSITION JUST OFF
S COAST THU MORNING...SO WE WILL START OFF WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
SOUTHERN ZONES THU MORNING (CATEGORICAL) AND TAPER OFF TO CHANCE
FARTHER N...THEN POPS RAPIDLY DECREASE TO CHANCE OR LOWER BY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. CLEARING
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WORK IN FROM N TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WE ARE THEN LOOKING FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FRI INTO SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND ESSENTIALLY
BRINGS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST.  MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TODAY.  AREAS OF HAZE WITH MVFR VISIBILITY
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.  THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR
AVIATIONS INTERESTS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&


.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO BUILD SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE.  A FEW GUSTS TO
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE.  THE HIGHEST SEAS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET AND WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS FOR TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT AND CHOPPY SEAS.

IN THE LONGER TERM...WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF 25 KT NE
WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER S. THEN WE ARE IN FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS FRI INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH IS EXPECTED FROM LATER
TODAY INTO THU...WHICH SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS.  HOWEVER WE DO EXPECT TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE CONTINUING TO FORECAST NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY...AND THIS
ASSUMES A LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS IN THE AREA WHICH WE
THINK IS A SAFE BET.  RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

BOS 96/1984
ORH 91/1933
PVD 95/1984
BDL 96/1984

HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR 2004 TO DATE ARE AS FOLLOWS...

BOS 89 ON MAY 15
ORH 86 ON MAY 15
PVD 87 ON MAY 15
BDL 90 ON MAY 12 AND YESTERDAY JUN 8

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS ANZ254-255

&&

SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...JWD

   SPC AC 090557

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
   BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 45 NNE MSV 25 W BFD 35 NNW MFD
   35 N LAF 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 25 NNE MKG 75 ESE OSC.

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
   CYS 30 NNE RWL 40 WNW CPR 35 WSW GCC 15 S 81V 40 NNW CDR 50 ENE AIA
   20 SE MHN 25 ESE BUB 15 SSW OLU 40 E HSI 50 ENE HLC 40 SSE GLD 30
   SSE LHX 15 WNW PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 WSW CYS.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS
   30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 30 NNW
   RBL 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 40 NE JMS 25 W AXN 50 NNE MSP
   10 NNE RHI 15 WNW ANJ.

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NRN IL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE FROM SERN WY TO ERN CO...

   ...SRN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...

   SURFACE PRESSURES WILL RISE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN THE WAKE OF UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEW
   ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AIRMASS HAS GRADUALLY MOISTENED
   UPSTREAM FROM THIS REGION WITH SWLY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOW WELL INTO
   THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG.  DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY
   STEEP...ROUGHLY 6-6.5C/KM...FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
   AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL EASILY
   DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
   MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS.  MEAN WIND VECTOR SUGGESTS THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
   EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS.


   ..DARROW/GUYER.. 06/09/2004

   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo