[HCRA] Fw: Severe Weather Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko at juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
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--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo at rcn.com>
To: <rmacedo at rcn.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2004 00:51:15 -0400
Subject: Severe Weather Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <001301c44ddd$bd922800$79d8accf at oemcomputer>

Hello to all....

....SPC has placed the region along and north of Route 2 in Northern
Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire in a Slight Risk for Severe
Weather
for Wednesday Afternoon and Night and NWS Taunton believes the risk is
along
and north of the Mass. Pike for Wednesday Afternoon and Night. Damaging
Winds and Large Hail are the Primary Threats....
....SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible tomorrow
anytime
after 2 PM Wednesday and could extend into the evening hours....

The Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton believes there is a risk for
severe weather tomorrow over portions of Southern New England. While the
threat appears to involve Massachusetts along and north of the Mass Pike
and
Southern New Hampshire, areas to the south should monitor the situation.
The
current run of the ETA model is forecasting a signifcant spike of
instability after 2 PM tomorrow with a Cap that will supress shower and
thunderstorm development in the morning eroding rapidly in the early
afternoon. Wind fields aloft are marginal but sufficient for
thunderstorms
capable of strong damaging winds given extreme instability in place with
strong daytime heating and there will also be sufficient parameters for
large hail as well. Caveats to this risk of severe weather is there must
be
a trigger for convection to fire and the models are hinting at some
pre-frontal feature that may form ahead of the Cold Front during the
timeframe after 2 PM.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible tomorrow anytime
after 2 PM-8 or 9 PM in the evening. It is possible that activity could
extend to as late as midnight as the cold front drops southeastward but
this
is unclear at this time. The next coordination message will be posted no
later than 8 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast
Discussion and Hazardous WX Outlook along with the SPC Day-2 Convective
Outlook:

FLUS41 KBOX 080830
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-091100-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO 100 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IN ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  WHILE THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER PLACES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY...NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD
STILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.  IT MAY BE
REQUIRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX

$$

JWD

FXUS61 KBOX 082118
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
516 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...HEATS IS ON AND WE SHOULD ALL BE READY FOR A SCORCHER WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE THE WARMEST WEATHER SINCE MID AUGUST
2002!

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL WAVE HEAVY SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING THEN -1SD 850 AIR FOR FRI/SAT FOLLOWED BY A RECOVERY. WE MAY
BE GETTING INTO A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNS OF
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW AS RDG REDEVLOPS ALONG THE E COAST AND SIG TROF
FORMS NEAR 85W TUESDAY. PLEASE NOTE A DELAY IN PRODUCT CHANGES LISTED
WAY BELOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND WED

PATCHES OF HAZE AND FOG WITH BATCHES OF CI ROLLING OVER THE RIDGE
WILL BE ABOUT IT TNGT.  STILL AWAITING WIND SHIFT FROM SE TO SW BOS
OTHERWISE INTERIOR IN THE EXPECTED 88-92 RANGE.  TEMPS WILL SETTLE
BACK INTO THE 60S...BOS HANGING CLOSE TO 70.

SIGNIFICANT FROPA IN STORE BEYOND THIS PERIOD - FOR WED DAYTIME THE
QUESTIONG IS WHETHER PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FORM AND TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK.  MDL CAPES >3000 J/KG DO NOT HAPPEN OFTEN IN
THE CWA - BUT MID LEVEL CAP STILL PRESENT ON SOUNDING AT LEAST UNTIL
18Z.  UPR LVL JET DYNAMICS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH >100 KT CORE WHISTLING
ACRS SRN QUEBEC PLACING ALL OF THE NE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.
ALSO NOTED FCST OF 40 KT JET MOVING ACRS NY STATE AND CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND AT 850-700 MB. ETA GDNC DOES TRIGGER AND HAVE CARRIED CHC
TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF INTERIOR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT TIGHENES WITH W/SW FLOW.  MAXES HAVE BEEN RAISED PLACING
MOST OF INTERIOR INTO THE MID 90S.  THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD TEMPS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

PER PREV SHIFT...WENT FOR IT ON THE POPS.  JUST APPEARS TO BE TOO
MUCH PW...INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE TO IGNORE.  R+ COULD
BE A POOR DRAINAGE FLOODER FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN SOME
AREAS WITH ISO PT RAINFALLS 2.5" WHERE STORMS REPEAT. SVR NOT LIKELY
IN THE 04Z-18Z THU TIME FRAME BUT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE
PLENTIFUL.

MODELS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING...IN FACT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE TO NEARLY 2" AHEAD OF IT.  INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
IN THE 04Z-16Z THU TIME FRAME AND RAN THE FCST WITH COVERAGE.  TIMING
MAY BE AN ISSUE BUT THE TRW+ EVENT BLV IS LIKELY.

TEMPS AT 16Z THURSDAY IN BOSTON SHOULD BE 25 TO 30 DEGS COLDER THAN
THE READINGS FOR 16Z WED!

DELAY DELAY DELAY ON CID BELOW AT LEAST ONE WEEK.

AS A REMINDER...PROBABLY BEGINNING AT NOON NEXT TUESDAY THE 15TH
PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS FOR THE CODED CITIES FORECAST (CCF) AND COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST (CWF) WILL TRANSITION TO THEIR END-STATE
COMMUNICATIONS HEADERS.

CCF CHANGES FROM FPUS41 KBOX TO FPUS41 KBOX
                 CCFBOS         CCFBOX

CWF CHANGES FROM FZUS51 KBOX TO FZUS51 KBOX
                 CWFBOS         CWFBOX

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR BEING FCST TO DROP TO AREAS MVFR WITH 3-5SM HZ/BR LATER TNGT
LASTING INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING.  THEN VFR AGAIN WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THE MAIN PLAYER WED FOR AVIATION RELATED INTERESTS.

&&


.MARINE...
WNA SEAS KICKING UP 5 FT A BIT TOO SOON AND HAVE HELD BACK MENTION
OF SCA FOR SEAS OUTER RING OF SE/SRN WATERS UNTIL WED.  NEAR-SHORE
WILL ADVERTIZE SCA MAY BE NEEDED WED FOR WINDS WITH G25 KTS QUITE
LIKELY ON INCREASING SW FLOW.

IN THE LONGER TERM....MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20-25KT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THU MORNING...BUT IT
MAY NOT BE PROLONGED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RER HEAT WED...PRESUMING NO TSTM DEBRIS IN THE AREA.  TEMPS
REACHED 84 JAMES BAY TODAY... NEAR 90 IN MICHIGAN.  ADD 5F FOR
DOWNSLOPE WLY FLOW AHD OF THE FRONT. FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE WE WONT
BAKE IN THE MID 90S ALL NON MARINE INFLUENCED ELEVATIONS BLO 500
MSL! HYDRATE.

    6/9

BOS 96/1984
ORH 91/1933
PVD 95/1984
BDL 96/1984

HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR 2004 TO DATE ARE AS FOLLOWS...

BOS 89 ON MAY 15
ORH 86 ON MAY 15
PVD 87 ON MAY 15
BDL 90 ON MAY 12 AND TODAY JUN 8

BAF/BDL/CEF/ASH ALL REACHED 90 TODAY.

HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR 2003 ARE AS FOLLOWS...

BOS 93 ON JUN 27...JUL 6 AND AUG 22
ORH 89 ON JUN 26 AND JUL 4
PVD 92 ON JUN 25 AND JUL 5
BDL 94 ON JUN 26 AND JUN 27 (4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS 93 OR 94)

IT'S PROBABLE WE WILL EQUAL OR EXCEED THE WARMEST READINGS FROM
2003 AT LEAST AT BOS/BDL/PVD...MEANING WE HAVE TO GO BACK TO AUG
2002 TO FIND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  JUL AND AUG 2002 WERE HOT AT
TIMES...AND ON AUG 14 BOS HIT 101...BDL/BED/LWM/OWD 99...
FIT/MHT/MQE/PVD 98...AND ORH 93.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&
AED/BELK/JWD/WD/DRV

   SPC AC 081731

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
   CYS 50 WSW CPR BPI 30 W MLD TWF 45 WNW SUN 55 SW 27U 20 WSW BTM 25
   ENE 3HT 55 NE 4BQ 50 NW PHP 15 WSW ANW 35 ESE LBF 25 SSW MCK 30 SSW
   GLD 35 SSE LIC 40 W LIC 20 E FCL 20 WSW CYS.

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
   DTW 40 SSE CGX 35 E MLI 20 SW DBQ 25 WSW LNR 20 SW OSH 55 E OSC
   ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 50 SSE UCA 25
   ENE ERI.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 45 E FAR
   50 ENE STC 15 NE RHI 15 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SW GON 15 W AVP 15 NW
   AOO 50 W MRB CHO 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 S GPT 30 ENE MCB 20 S GLH 35
   WNW MEM 15 SSW POF 40 WNW POF UNO 20 S HRO 25 S PRX 25 NE CLL 15 SE
   PSX ...CONT... 50 NW LRD 35 WSW ABI 25 W CSM 15 NE HUT 15 N MHK 20
   SSW BIE 40 SE HSI 30 ENE HLC 20 ESE EHA 40 SW LBB 15 SE P07
   ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 40 ENE TCS 30 WSW GNT PGA 25 W SGU 60 W DRA 35
   ENE FAT 40 NNE SAC 30 N MHS 10 NNW BLI.

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   AND HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
   LAKES... AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...

   ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES...

   A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL MOVE SEWD TONIGHT
   AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ON DAY2...EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM
   NRN IA ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA INTO LOWER MI AND NRN NY. ALTHOUGH
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS TEMPS WARM AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
   ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH
   RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KT WHICH STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   CONSIDERING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED FROM EAST TO WEST
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD
   AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OCCURRING NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.
   STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING
   THE EVENING.

   ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2004

   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo