[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #1

[Eric W Tuller]

Eric Tuller    N1QKO

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Thu, 5 Feb 2004 08:14:52 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <02b501c3ebea$6e21f660$51d8accf@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all...

....Potential exists for a Significant Ice Storm Over Southern New
Hamsphire
and Western and Central Massachusetts late Friday Afternoon into Saturday
Morning. There does remain uncertainities in this forecast but the event
is
close enough to warrant coordination messages to commence....
....Potential exists for Winter Storm Watches to be posted later today
for
portions of interior Southern New England....
....Snow and Ice should quickly changeover to rain across most of Eastern
Massachusetts, all of Rhode Island, and Northeast CT with some question
of
the changeover across Northwest Connecticut....
....SKYWARN Formal Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton May Be Required if
the
threat for a significant ice storm verifies across Southern New Hampshire
and Western and Central Massachusetts....

WX Models since Wednesday Night are hinting at the potential for a
significant ice storm across portions of Southern New Hamsphire and
Western
and Central Massachusetts especially Friday Night into Saturday Morning.
Snow will spread across the region on Friday. The snow will quickly
changeover to ice and rain across Northeast CT, Rhode Island and Eastern
Massachusetts with the exception of areas along and north of Route 2 in
Middlesex County where snow and ice may hold on for a longer period of
time.
The snow and ice may hold on for a longer period of time across Northwest
CT
as well.

Across Western and Central Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire, cold
air at the lowest levels will be hard to scour out despite strong warming
at
higher levels. This will cause the snow changeover to sleet and perhaps a
prolonged period of freezing rain. The potential exists for a 12-18 hour
period of freezing rain resulting in 1/2" glaze accumilations across the
interior. If this were to occur, it would be enough to knock down trees
and
power lines and potentially cause power outages. Precipitation will end
Saturday Morning across the entire region.

It is not clear at this time if this forecast will verify and confidence
on
this situation is lower than normal. Models have a large amount of
uncertainty. High pressure that would keep the cold air in place across
the
region will not be in the most favorable position to maintain the cold
air
over the region. Also, there are significant discrepancies in the models
over where the secondary low forms and whether it will keep cold air in
place over the Western to Central Mass/Southern New Hampshire region
making
it difficult to predict where the snow to ice to rain changeover line
will
setup.

If the forecast verifies, SKYWARN formal activation maybe required Friday
Night into Saturday Morning to cover this situation but there remains the
potential for significant forecast changes between now and tonight. More
details will be available as we get closer to the event.

The next coordination message will be issued by 11:30 PM this evening.
Below
is the Special Weather Statement and Hazardous WX Outlook from NWS
Taunton:

FLUS41 KBOX 051142
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-061200-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
640 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AN AREA OF SNOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE HARTFORD AND WORCESTER AREAS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  THERE COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ICING OR
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE ALONG WITH THE ICING.

THERE COULD BE PROBLEMS WITH TREES AND POWER LINES IF ICING BECOMES
A MAJOR CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT.

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN WILL END DURING SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE AND/OR GLAZE OF ONE
QUARTER INCH OR GREATER THICKNESS.

$$

EVT

WWUS81 KBOX 051012
SPSBOX

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004

.THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.  ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND REACH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>004-052230-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
512 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004

AFTER A PERIOD OF SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE THE SNOW TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN INLAND AND TO
PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE COAST. MUCH OF NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE OCCURS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT AND THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW COLD IT GETS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BE FROM NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  IN THOSE
AREAS THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH COULD PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF GLAZE.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SURE OF HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BUT A
MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER IS PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY AND IT COULD
SERIOUSLY IMPACT TRAVEL IN THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo