[HCRA] Fw: [coordinators-box] Storm for Late Tuesday Afternoon and Night {01}

Mon, 2 Feb 2004 08:40:16 -0500

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
       WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
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    CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <[email protected]>
To: "coordinators-box List Member"  <[email protected]>
Date: Mon, 2 Feb 2004 08:02:59 -0500
Subject: [coordinators-box] Storm for Late Tuesday Afternoon and Night
{01}
Message-ID: <[email protected]>

Hello to all...

A quick hitting storm will affect the region Late Tuesday Afternoon and
Tuesday Night bringing a quick shot heavy west snow to Western New
England
with Eastern New England seeing mostly rain out of this system. Another
storm system is expected towards Friday and the weekend. Below is the
Special WX Statement and Hazardous WX Outlook from NWS Taunton outlining
these threats:

FLUS41 KBOX 021138
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
637 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-031130-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
637 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL OCCUR.  CONSIDERABLE SEA ICE WILL CONTINUE
IN THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
.TUESDAY...A 5 TO 10 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 3 PM TUESDAY AND 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

A PUBLIC SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MOST LIKELY REGION OF ADVERSE WINTRY WEATHER.

TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...PARTLY
DUE TO THE STORM TRACK AND PARTLY DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FREEZING
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH WHICH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GENERATED AND OR FALLING.

IN A NUTSHELL...MOST...IF NOT ALL RAIN IS FORECAST SOUTHEAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST.

FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE THERE COULD BE 2 HOURS OF WET SNOW WITH
AT WORST ONLY A COATING EXPECTED...GENERALLY MELTING AS IT HITS THE
STREETS.

THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BOTH CITIES MIGHT
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY
OF THIS AMOUNT IS ONLY ABOUT 45 PERCENT.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE INTERSTATE 91 CORRIDOR FROM HARTFORD TO
SPRINGFIELD AND POSSIBLY GREENFIELD DURING THE TAIL END OF THE
TUESDAY EVENING RUSH HOUR. A QUICK INCH OR 3 OF SNOW COULD FALL
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHWEST HARTFORD COUNTY INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
COULD SEE SPOTTY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES.

THE MONADNOCK REGION OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS HIGH
TERRAIN REGIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN WORCESTER
COUNTY...NORTH OF ROUTE 2...ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.  THERE IS STILL A SMALL (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED 7
INCH AMOUNT IN THAT AREA.

SNOW SHOULD END AS A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TOWARD DAWN MAY ALLOW SOME
REFREEZING OF SURFACE MOISTURE AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD
CAUSE ICY SPOTS..ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MELTING SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE MILDEST WEATHER IN A MONTH MAKES A ONE DAY
VISIT TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISING INTO THE 40S.

.LATE THIS WEEK...A COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY LONG DURATION WINTRY EVENT
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS APPEARS TO BE
SHAPING UP AS SEVERAL SURGES OF ICE AND/OR SNOW...WHICH MAY STRETCH
RESOURCES IN TREATING THE VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ONLY ONE 18 HOUR PRIMARY SYSTEM EITHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WOULD MAKE IT EASIER TO HANDLE THE ADVERSE
WEATHER TYPES.

A NORTHEAST OR NORTHERLY GALE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  IF
THIS OCCURS...TIDE CYCLES WILL BE RISING A BIT AND THE COMBINATION
OF WAVE ACTION AND ANY LEFTOVER SEA ICE COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OR DAMAGE DUE TO ICE MOVEMENT.

.SEA ICE...COASTAL WATERS SEA ICE SHOULD START STEADILY MELTING
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.  HOW QUICK IT MELTS WE DO NOT KNOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

DRAG

WWUS81 KBOX 021049
SPSBOX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
550 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004

.A FAST MOVING AND LATE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL RUSH PAST NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A 5 TO 10 HOUR PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR ALLOWING MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN ANY LOCATION OF
NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SO A WATCH
IS NOT BEING ISSUED. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOW IS LIKELY...BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS.

CTZ002-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-012-015-021700-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-HARTFORD CT-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
550 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004

THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN HARTFORD COUNTY AS WELL  THE
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IN AND NEAR THE MONADNOCKS...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW LATE TUESDAY.  TIMING OF THIS SHORT DURATION
HEAVY WET SNOW...APPEARS TO BE FAVORING THE TUESDAY EVENING RUSH HOUR
IN THE HARTFORD SPRINGFIELD AREA. ELSEWHERE...FROM WORCESTER TO
FITCHBURG...KEENE AND MANCHESTER...THE BURST OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT CAN SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING...RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
WHILE AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN...HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD RECEIVE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL DAWN CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
DRAG

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: [email protected]
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo