[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #1
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[email protected]
Thu, 1 Apr 2004 13:22:36 -0500
Eric Tuller N1QKO
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--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <[email protected]>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Thu, 1 Apr 2004 08:29:14 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <00fb01c417ed$ab2875a0$69d8accf@skywarnmainpc>
Hello to all....
....A Flood Watch is in Effect for Western and Central Massachusetts and
Northern Connecticut for this afternoon through 4 AM Friday Morning....
....Potential exists for Urban Flooding as well as small stream and river
flooding in the Flood Watch Area....
....SKYWARN Self-Activation for Flooding Reports and Rainfall Amounts 2"
or
more are Possible if a Flood Warning is issued over any part of the Watch
area. Other Portions of Southern New England Should Continue to Monitor
Future Forecasts....
A Flood Watch has been posted for Western and Central Massachusetts and
all
of Northern Connecticut for this afternoon through 4 AM Friday Morning.
1.5-2" of rain fell over this region yesterday and an additional 1-2" of
rain is expected today over this region. This total amount of rainfall
may
be enough to cause some small stream, creeks and small rivers to go out
of
their banks in this area. In addition, there is the potential for urban
and
poor drainage flooding in areas that receive the heaviest amounts of
rainfall.
Across Southern New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island,
rain
will fall and be heavy at times. Flash Flood Guidance Values in this area
are higher than in Western and Central Mass and Northern CT so this
region
was not included in the Flood Watch. This will need to be monitored
closely
though as higher rainfall amounts could bring this region closer to the
Flash Flood Guidance values. Some minor urban and poor drainage flooding
is
possible in this area. SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators should monitor
this
situation in this area.
SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators are asked to forward rainfall totals of
2"
or more for the entire event (including yesterday's rainfall) to NWS
Taunton. Be specific in saying how much rain fell today and yesterday and
then give the total amount for both days if possible or at least state
the
timeframe in which all the rain has fallen including yesterday's
rainfall.
Also, please report any urban or street flooding enough to cause road
closures or cars to be stuck in flood waters as well as any rivers or
streams near bankful or in flood.
Another Coordination Message will be posted this evening if necessary.
Below
is the Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous WX Outlook and Area Forecast
Discussion from NWS Taunton:
WGUS61 KBOX 010925 CCA
FFABOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-011630-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EST THU APR 1 2004
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE TONIGHT...
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...
IN MASSACHUSETTS...
EASTERN FRANKLIN...WESTERN FRANKLIN...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN WORCESTER...SOUTHERN WORCESTER...EASTERN HAMPDEN
AND WESTERN HAMPDEN.
IN CONNECTICUT...
HARTFORD...TOLLAND AND WINDHAM.
SOME CITIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE AMHERST...BRISTOL...CHICOPEE...EAST
HARTFORD...FITCHBURG...GREENFIELD...HARTFORD...LEOMINSTER...
MANCHESTER...MANSFIELD...MILFORD...NEW BRITAIN...NEWINGTON...
NORTHAMPTON...PLAINFIELD...PUTNAM...SPRINGFIELD...VERNON...WEST
HARTFORD...WILLIMANTIC...WINDSOR LOCKS AND WORCESTER.
RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND
CONNECTICUT. THIS SAME AREA WAS ALREADY DRENCHED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
RAINFALL BETWEEN AN INCH AND ONE-HALF AND TWO INCHES. THE RUNNING
OFF OF THIS AMOUNT OF WATER WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO
RISE RAPIDLY...AND MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO NUDGE A FEW OUT OF THEIR
BANKS.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS.
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF
A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
$$
WTB
FLUS41 KBOX 011128
HWOBOX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
626 AM EST THU APR 1 2004
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-021100-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
HARTFORD CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-TOLLAND CT-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WINDHAM CT-
626 AM EST THU APR 1 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT AND FOR MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY TO
WORCESTER COUNTY.
.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL HILLS OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIRAL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. RAIN WILL BE THE RULE AND IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA...COMBINED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...COULD YIELD ENOUGH
RUNOFF TO CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE RAPIDLY...AND MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO NUDGE A FEW OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH GALE FORCE ON
THE OUTER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH A LULL IN THE ACTION ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY CAUSING MORE RAIN SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
WHILE FORMAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE.
THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX
$$
MAZ005>007-013>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-021100-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SUFFOLK MA-WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
626 AM EST THU APR 1 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...AND ALL OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIRAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL BE THE RULE AND
IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY
NO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT AS RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH GALE
FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH A LULL IN THE ACTION ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY CAUSING MORE RAIN SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
WHILE FORMAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE.
THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX
$$
KAB
FXUS61 KBOX 011014 CCA
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 AM EST THU APR 1 2004
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF DELMARVA WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PUNCHED UP THROUGH
CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE EVENING...
WHICH HELPED SET OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IN THAT AREA.
SOME OF THE HEAVY RAIN THEN SWUNG THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.
RADARS SHOW THE OVERNIGHT RAIN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING UP THE NEW JERSEY COAST...
AND PER BOTH THE GFS AND ETA THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK PVA AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS SUCH...WE EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AS THE AREA MOVES THROUGH. YET ANOTHER AREA OF FORCING
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON SWINGING AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENTIC FORCING UP THE COAST FOR THE 18Z-06Z PERIOD...WITH THE
ETA SWINGING THE FORCING NORTH INTO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHILE
THE GFS SHUNTS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
CLOSED FLOW ALOFT...THE ETA SOLUTION IS FAVORED HERE. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT DO NOT DIMINISH UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
SO FORECAST WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS AND CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH POPS THEN DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
DAY.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY/TONIGHT/FRIDAY. USED A MODIFIED
VERSION OF THE GFS MOS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY
ADDITIONAL QPF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY PER THE ETA IS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE AND FAVORING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AT ITS HEAVIEST. FLOOD INDICES
ARE 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN EASTERN MASS AND RHODE ISLAND...BUT 1.8 TO
2.5 IN WESTERN MASS AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. ALSO FINDING THE
LOWER VALUES IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. IT IS CLOSE...CLOSE ENOUGH
IN FACT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND AREAS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THESE AREAS WERE HARDEST HIT WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SO WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. LATER SHIFTS MAY ADJUST THIS AS MORE INFORMATION COMES IN.
&&
.AVIATION
LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VSBYS MOSTLY MVFR IN THE QUIET
PERIODS AND IFR DURING THE RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE SHORT TERM THE STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW. THIS WILL ACTUALLY
AFFECT OUR NORTHEN WATERS MORE...AS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CENTER TO HAVE LESS OF A GRADIENT. PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WINDS EAST OF MASS REACH 35 KTS DOWN TO 500 FT WHICH
COULD BE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL ISSUED
GALES FOR THE MERRIMACK TO PLYMOUTH WATERS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER.
&&
.LONG TERM...
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE OF NORTH
CAROLINA. LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTION AS REGION BECOMES
SITUATED UNDER WEAK RIDGING. BUT THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS JUST
UPSTREAM ANOTHER CLOSED LOW COMES BARRELING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW AND COLD POOL (-34 C) MOVES
OVERHEAD LATE DAY SUNDAY INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA
AND CAUSING IT TO RETROGRADE SW OVER MAINE. PLAN TO INTRODUCE CHANCE
POPS FOR ALL ZONES SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH THEN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
WRAPS LOWERING THICKNESSES ACROSS REGION. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES...WITH CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ALL ZONES EARLY MONDAY.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST/DATABASE BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH MAZ002>004-008>012.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ250-254 MERRIMACK RVR TO NANTUCKET.
SCA...ANZ231>235-237-255 REMAINING WATERS EXC BOSTON HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KAB
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: [email protected]
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo