[HCRA] Fw: Severe Weather Coordination Message

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
        WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
  earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
               CT+ MD+ VT+ King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Fri, 2 May 2003 08:16:23 -0400
Subject: Severe Weather Coordination Message
Message-ID: <002b01c310a4$eeb3af20$b9d8accf@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all...

....Slight Risk of Severe Weather Across Western and Central
Massachusetts,
Rhode Island and Connecticut for today. Damaging Winds and Large Hail are
the primary threats...
....Risk today is greater than the risk from Thursday and covers a larger
area....
....Risk for today could expand northward, there is a chance of a
isolated
severe thunderstorm in the area of the Hosstraders Hamfest in Hopkinton,
NH.
Hams in the area should take cover if a thunderstorm approaches the
fairground....
....SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible today....

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Western and Central
Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Slight Risk of Severe
Weather for today. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.
A
15-25% probability exists for this area. The key issue for today will be
the
amount of sunshine that occurs over the area. If enough sunshine occurs,
this would raise key instability parameters to high levels and would
result
in a severe weather event (the first of the new season)today across
portions
of Southern New England.  The timeframe for this potential event would be
between 2-7 PM across the region.

A warm front has just punched through much of Southern New England and is
now up in Central New Hampshire. A Cold front will be approaching the
area
from the west. Yesterday, this front sparked some severe thunderstorms in
Eastern and Central New York resulting in pockets of wind damage. The
front
featured a low-topped line of thunderstorms and this is the risk the
region
faces today if enough sunshine and instability can occur.

Amateur Radio Operators, and SKYWARN Spotters should be prepared for
possible SKYWARN Activation this afternoon and evening for the threat of
some severe thunderstorms. Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters are reminded to
check into local area repeaters and report severe weather via those
repeaters. They are also reminded about the isolated nature of severe
weather and are asked to try and poll for reports from as many sources as
possible to find out if severe weather has occurred over a specific area.

This will be the only email concerning this situation, pages will be sent
throughout the day to update the threat.

Below is the Hazardous WX Outlook from NWS Taunton and the SPC Day-1
Convective Outlook:

FLUS41 KBOX 020840
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-030930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON... ENOUGH HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND SOUTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS FOR A FEW OF
THESE STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.  SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS...25 TO 35 KTS...ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO AT TIMES 10 OR 12 FT FOR A TIME SATURDAY.
MARINERS MAY WISH TO DELAY OFFSHORE TRAVEL UNTIL THIS STORM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND OTHER
SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR TODAYS FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO
RELAY REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML.


DRV

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 NE SBY RIC FAY 45 NW AYS DHN 10 WNW JAN GLH ELD SHV LFK AUS BWD
   ABI SPS ADM PGO 40 SSW UNO DYR BNA CSV CRW LBE AVP PSF ORH
   25 SW EWB.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL ATY FSD
   10 SSE OLU RSL ICT 30 SSE CNU 45 NNW SGF 10 WSW BLV 10 ENE HUF IND
   DAY ZZV DUJ 40 WSW GFL PWM ...CONT... 65 W MIA 25 NNE FMY
   45 NE PIE 50 N PIE ...CONT... 40 SSE DRT 10 S SJT 55 W ABI
   30 NE TCC ALS 20 SSE GUC 25 NE GJT CAG 30 W BFF 81V 15 ENE BIL
   40 SE WEY 20 SW SLC 70 E TPH 50 NNE NID 20 SW LGB ...CONT...
   25 S ONP 25 W PDX 10 SSW OLM 20 ENE CLM.

   AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS BRITISH
   COLUMBIA...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW...MODELS SUGGEST
   EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE
   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH CIRCULATION CENTER APPROACHING THE
   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA TOWARD 03/12Z.  DOWNSTREAM...SHORT WAVE
   RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW
   REGIME FROM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS INTO DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
   THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW
   WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
   ROTATES AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY.

   ...APPALACHIANS INTO ATLANTIC COAST...
   STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM
   THE NORTHEAST STATES...BUT SUBSIDENT FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE
   APPALACHIANS...AND IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
   NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WILL ALLOW FOR
   SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  THIS WILL OCCUR
   ALONG/SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS PROGGED FROM
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MID DAY.
   INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FAIRLY
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE...IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS
   ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY/PHILADELPHIA AREAS...BEFORE FRONT
   PROGRESSES OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

   OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BE
   GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...AIDED BY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY TROUGH.  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL/
   GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY NEAR PEAK HEATING...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
   WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN.

   ..KERR/JEWELL.. 05/02/03

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator