[HCRA] Fw: Tropical Storm Hanna Coordination Message #1

[eric w Tuller]

Eric N1QKO

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
Date: Fri, 13 Sep 2002 23:34:26 -0400
Subject: Tropical Storm Hanna Coordination Message #1
Hello to all...

....Tropical Storm Hanna or its Remnants Will Affect Southern New England
Sunday Afternoon into early Monday bringing a three pronged threat of
heavy
rains enough to cause flooding despite dry conditions, possible coastal
flooding to South and east facing beaches, and the possibility of Severe
Weather to the Region...

...SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton Likely Sunday Afternoon
Possibly Through Early Monday...

...Massachusetts RACES May Be Activated along with Eastern Mass. ARES on
Sunday if necessary...

...For Other States ARES and RACES status, please consult your area EC,
DEC,
or SEC for more information. This is an update for SKYWARN Coordination
purposes and those in other states should work with their local/state EMA
or
ARES officials for ARES and RACES status for this event. The
Massachusetts
items have been stated based on coordination with Mass. RACES and Eastern
Mass. ARES...

Tropical Storm Hanna, currently located in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico
is
expected to track through the Southeastern US Saturday, through the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday, and then off the Atlantic and move through Southern
New
England late Sunday and Monday. The track of Hanna will be critical in
determing the type of weather experienced across Southern New England
Sunday
Afternoon into early Monday. At this time, the current track brings it
fairly far inland before emerging off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic late
Sunday Evening and into Southern New England. The current progged track
would lead to the following sceario:

1.) Heavy Rains and Strong Winds across Western, Central and Northeast
Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire, Connecticut and Northern Rhode
Island
with the threat for severe weather in these areas.

2.) The potential for less rain but a greater threat of general strong
winds
across Southeast Massachusetts and Southern and Central Rhode Island as
the
center tracks near or over these locations.

3.) Coastal Flooding possible at the time of high tides across South and
East facing beaches of Southern New England in relation to Hanna or her
remnants. The Northeast facing beaches may also get coastal flooding
depending upon the evolution of Hanna and her eventual track.

This type of situation is reminiscent to several other systems that have
hit
the region. These systems included the remnants of Allison on June 17th
which resulted in a F1 Tornado in Princeton, Mass. a F1 Microburst in
Leominster, Mass. and wind damage in roughly 6-8 towns in the
North-Central
and Northeast Worcester and Northwest Middlesex County Massachusetts
Region
along with flooding rains across portions of Southern New England. It is
also reminiscent to an extent of Tropical Storm Danny in that it may be
able
to keep its intensity as a tropical storm inland for several hundred
miles
or at least be a potent hybrid system as it emerges and gets into
Southern
New England. These systems are known for causing flooding, even in
drought-type situations and for their potential to produce severe
weather.

The timing of activity is anywhere from Sunday Afternoon through Monday
Morning. This timeframe will be refined in future updates. As with most
tropical storms, hybrids or remnants, the location or track of the system
will determine who gets rain North and West of the center of circulation
and
who gets the potential for stonger winds on the south and east side of
the
system. The current track puts the center of circulation almost on top of
coastal areas of Southern New England. A scenario like this would give
heavy
rain over most of Southern New England except for South Coastal areas and
Cape Cod and the Islands and the threat of isolated severe weather across
most of the area. This track has a considerable margin of error currently
and will be refined as we get closer to Sunday. The intensity of the
system
is also unclear at this time and will be refined in futher updates.

At this time, SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton appears likely.
MEMA, the Mass. Emergency Management Agency has requested that RACES
Radio
Officers be prepared for possible staffing of regional offices for Sunday
but its unclear that this will be needed. Local town RACES Officers in
Massachusetts should consult with their town EMA directors on any plans
for
activation at the local level.  Eastern Mass. ARES will follow the lead
of
RACES per the doctrine as needed. People in other states that are wanting
to
know the status of ARES and RACES should again consult with their EC,
DEC,
SEC or RACES designees for their status if there is any change. The
Massachusetts information was received over the course of today. This
will
be updated pending the threat from the system.

For latest NHC track guidance, please consult the text advisory and
graphic
information as provided by the National Hurricane Center and also
provided
by the Hurricane Watch Net web site:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/                                             Main
Web Site for Hanna information.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_astorm9.html           Hanna Graphical
Information
http://www.hwn.org/atlantic.shtml                                 Main
Web
Site for Hanna information.
http://www.hwn.org/nhcww4.shtml                               Hanna
Graphical Information

The next update on this situation will be posted by 1 PM Saturday. Here
is
the latest NWS Taunton AFD and A Hydrologic Outlook for the area:

FXUS61 KBOX 132123 CCA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..COR FOR MARINE HEADLINE SUNDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
514 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002

...TRACK OF HANNAS REMNANTS SEPARATES ORDINARY SHOWERY EVENT FROM
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RFALL JUST L (NORTH) OF SFC LOW TRACK IN NEW
ENGLAND...

GFS CONTS TO PROVIDE INTERESTING MODEL SOLNS FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

THREATS: INTERNAL BOX-NERFC COORDINATION ON OUTLIER ADVY/WARNING
RISKS HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED.  1) CONTINGENT EXTRA STAFFING MAY B
DVLPD SUN AFTN/EVE (INCL SKYWARN) DUE TO RISK OF "ISOLATED" 6" RFALL
IN 6 HRS TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...WHEREEVER SFC LOW-HYBIRD HANNA
PASSES THRU THE REGION. 2) SLIGHT RISK OF SPIN UP SVR WX EVENT
TYPICALLY ASSTD (SMALL TORS CAN OCCUR...RECALL ALLISON FATHERS DAY
2001) WITH TROP SYSTEMS AS PER RECENT FL RESEARCH AND LOCAL
EXPERIENCE. MORE DETAILS TOMORROW AS THE TRACK AND MODELED SHEAR
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. 3) FINALLY...THE THIRD THREAT IS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SSW SWELLS FOR THOSE ENROUTE SE AND E OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY MONDAY WITH 15+ FT SEAS NOT YET FCST BUT MODELED TWO
CONSECUTIVE CYCLES FOR MONDAY INCLUDING 12Z/13 GFS GWW.

TRACK: WE'RE STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACT TRACK AND RUN-RUN LEFTWARD
       DRIFT OF THE SFC LOW CUD STILL LV GENEROUS RAINS OCCUR MAINLY
       IN NNE...BUT RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND ETA INDICATE WDSPRD 1-4"
       ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SNE WITH COMPARATIVELY LITTLE FOR
       CC-S COAST WHICH MAY BREAK INTO BRIGHT SS AT TIMES SUNDAY.
       WARM SECTOR IN INC S COAST CC AND ISLANDS MIGHT ESCAPE WITH
       ONLY .2 TO 1.2 IF THEY INDEED ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
       UKMET SOLN IS INTERESTING AND BLV ITS OVERALL CONSERVATIVE
       RFALL WARRANTS ATTN W REPSECT TO LARGE AMTS IN OUR AREA
       SUN NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW TO DEPART ON THE UK
       SOLN MONDAY MORNING BUT PASSES ACRS CC.

HANNA: TPC/MPC HANDLING TRACK OF THIS AS TROPICAL OR HYBRID. CURRENT
       TRACK MOSTLY OVERLAND WILL PROB PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIF
       REINTENSIFICATION BUT SHUD THE TRACK END UP S THRU ACY-ACK..
       CONCERN WILL INCREASE FOR ADDED STRENGTHENING AS IT REMERGES
       NR N WALL OF GULF STREAM LATE SUN BUT THOSE FCSTS ARE NOT IN
       DIRECTLY IN OUR HANDS. WHILE IT WUD THEN EMERGE OVR LOW 20S
       SST INSTEAD OF 28C...THE SLY INFLOW WILL B FROM 28C SST AND
       HOT H20 IS JUST S OF GBANK.

QPF: TYPE A SLY EVENT...DOUBLE THE ETA QPF.  NEEDED CFP/TROPICAL
     ENHANCED RAINS SUNDAY WITH 1-4" AMTS IN 12 HRS WITH SML CHC
     6" IN 6 HRS WHERE IT TRAINS TO THE L OF THE TRACK OF SFC/8H
     LOW.  50 KT 8H JET PUSHING PW OF 2" INTO OUR AREA WITH KI 35+
     AND SWI NR 0...SHUD SEE ISO THUNDER...GOOD 3H DIV. MAX RFALL
     SHUD OCCUR IN LIGHT NE SFC WIND JUST L OF THE SFC LOW. FOR
     NOW NW OF I95 WITH CT RVR VLY...MONANDS AND ORH-NBT PRIME SPOTS.
     88D WILL PROB NEED TO BE IN TROP ZR ON SUNDAY. WE'LL BE
     REVIEWING KF OUTPUT TOMORROW FOR THE >2" RFALL REGION.

SUNDAY: A WET OR VERY WET SUNDAY LEFT OF ITS TRACK WITH WARM SLY
        GUSTS TO 35 KTS IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE TRACK. GALE IN
        MARINE FOR S COAST SUN AFTN.

MONDAY: NOT GOING TO CLEAR IT AST...CONCERNED ABT SECONDARY BAND OF
        LIGHT R AS PER YDYS 12Z/12 ECMWF AND CURRENTLY MODELED 12Z/13
        GFS FOR MONDAY.

ESF IS OUT. DECIDED NO MWS ATTM.

.BOX..
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA MAY B NEEDED SUN EXCPT GALE MAY B NEEDED S COAST.

$$
DRAG

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND

LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNAH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE A GENEROUS
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO THE LEFT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF
HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
TIME,
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
FLOODING
PROBLEMS IN URBAN AREAS, AS WELL AS ISOLATED SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
EVEN IN TIMES OF DROUGHT, FLOODING CAN STILL OCCUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503  (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929  (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo/