[HCRA] Poss. severe Wx this week

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

Hello to all...

Walt's discussion talks about Wednesday and possibly Friday or Saturday
as
possible severe threats for the area. As most of us are aware, severe
season
doesn't end in September, the Windsor Locks Tornado was October 3rd,
1979.
We'll keep an eye on these situations, see AFD below:

FXUS61 KBOX 301615
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1214 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002

...WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WITH SVRL RAIN
EVENTS...

THIS PRODUCTS SERVES AS LATE AM AND PLANNED AFTN PKG AFD.

NORMAL GRIDDED/RDF/G2D/FTP/CCF/SFP OPS THIS AFTNS ~430PM PKG MAY BE
COMPROMISED BY LOADING OF IFPS 11.3. POSSIBLE ZONE PRODUCTION VIA
XNOW.

THIS AFTN: ISO RW-- AFN TO LWM LATE THIS DISSIPATING AT 1545Z
           E OF DEERE ISLAND (MASS BAY).

           12Z/30 ETA RH PROFILE SUGGESTS THICK CLOUD CVR 6-9K
           DISSIPATES MID AND LATE AFTN. KEEPING TABS ON ST/=
           ACRS NE PA WHICH BLV HAS A DECENT CHC OF REFORMING
           IN SNE. VCNTY BDL-NZW SWD AFTR 06Z TNGT.

QPF: BY SATURDAY EVENING... A FEW LOCATIONS IN SNE MAY HAVE RCD 3"
     AS WE SEE INCURSIONS OF +3 OR GREATER SD OF PW IN OCNL SUMMER
     LIKE PATTERN. PRIME LOCATION FOR OVERALL HEAVIEST RAIN THIS WK
     APPEARS TO BE IN THE MONADNOCKS...ORH HILLS WWD TO THE W NEW
     ENG BORDER.

MIDDAY UPDATE...

THIS AFTN: RW-- OUT AND INCREASING SS. TEMPS RUNNING 4F HIGHER
           IN NE MA AND SW NH AND UPDATING TEMPS AT 1225 PM IN ZFP
           ONLY SINCE WE HAVE NO ACCESS TO RDF ETC.
           G15-20 KTS THIS AFTN.

430 PM PKG BLO....

TNGT: BLV IT OR NOT THE FCST IS PROB GOING TO DRIFT BACK TO OUR
      SATURDAY FCST POP OPTION FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER
      PULSE WAA DRIVES A NEW BAND OF CLOUDS AND SCT HEAVIER SHWRS
      ACRS THE NE FRINGE OF THE FA. MAY B PART OF AN MCS ACRS NNE AS
      YOU SEE THEM ROLLING ACRS THE TOP OF THE RDG PER ALB DISCUSSION
      IN ERN GTLKS! ST/PATCHY = WILL B ADDED TO THE FCST FOR BDL-NZW
      SWD AFTR 06Z.

TUE: 80-84 BDL-BOS-MHT ON THE WAY FOR TOMORROW AS A MAGNIFICENT AFTN
     APPEARS UPCOMING.  G15-20 KTS.

WED: FCST WILL PROB B UPGRADE DTO LIKELY OR CAT BOS-BDL NWWD AS
     +3SD OF PW BULLSEYE INTO SNE BY EVENING ALONG WITH 8H/7H JET
     CORES OF 40 KT NOSE INTO SNE ALONG WITH DECENT DIV AT 3H THE
     RT OF THE JET DVLPG S CENTRAL CANADA. THIS PW AXIS AND ASSTD
     BAND OF SHWRS REACHES S COAST IN WEAKENING STATUS BY 06Z SO
     430 PKG OF POPS WILL PROB CARRY A LIKELY FOR THE S COAST AT
     NITE W LEFTOVER CHC ELSEWHERE. WARMEST 1000-850 TKNS OF THE MID
     WK OCCURS SO TEMPS SHUD EXCEED TUE VALUES PRIOR TO ONSET OF
     RAIN. IE WILL PROB RAISE THE FCST TEMPS INTO THE 83-88 RANGE IN
     4 PM PKG. QPF IN SNE ON THE ORDER OF .05 TO .75 EXPECTED.
     THUNDER WILL B ADDED TO THE FCST.  G25 KTS FROM GRAD WIND.  DID
     YOU NOTICE ETAT1... 29C WEDNESDAY!!!!

THU: LEFTOVR CI SLIDES JUST S OF SNE WITH A NICE DAY BUT COOLER!

FRI: WILL PROBABLY UPGRADE TO LIKELY POPS MUCH OF INTERIOR SNE AS
     06Z GFS HAS BIG PW RETURNING (+3SD) A BIT OF AN 850 JET
     AND EXCT DIVERGENCE AT 3H AS ANOMALOUS TOP OF THE RDG 3H
     JET DVLPS INTO QUEBEC.  TIMING OF HIGHEST POP UNKNOWN OTRW
     EXPECTING BY SATURDAY 12Z AMTS RANGING FROM T-.2 ON CC TO AS
     MUCH AS 2.5" IN SML BAND SOMEWHERE NW PTN OF THE FA. THUNDER A
     GOOD BET.

SAT: WARM SECTOR GUSTY SW WINDS 25-35 KTS WITH SFC TEMPS PROBABLY IN
     THE 82-86 RANGE AS WARMEST 1000-850K ARRIVES. HI RH CONTENT
     MAKES IT A PS DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS NR THE CFP LATE
     IN THE DAY.

S NITE: CLEARING AFTR ANY REMNANT EVENING SHWR.
SUN: PLEASANT.

SVR: WEDNESDAY--LOW LVL 1000-850 SHEAR ON THIS EVENT IS SIGNIFICANT
                LATE IN THE DAY AND IF WE ADD SOME CAPE WE CUD HAVE
                AN "APPROACHING" RISK FOR A SMALL PTN OF SNE.
                RIGHT NOW MODELED 180 AGL CAPE IS NR 1000 J SO
                BLV THERE WILL B ACTION AND G 40KTS LATE W AFTN.

     FRI/SAT: ANOTHER BIG SHEAR DAY LATE FRI OR SATURDAY CUD B
              AN APPROACHING SVR PRODUCER.

90F: LONG SHOT...BUT CUD B ADDING ONE TO THE SEASONAL TOTALS AT
     BOS OR BDL THIS WK...EITHER WED OR SAT?

UPDATED AFD ARD 5 PM AFTR NEW IFPS LOAD COMPLETED AND WE CATCH UP.

HWO: STARTS TOMORROW... HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK... WILL B A LISTING
OF POTENTIAL ADVERSE WX EVENTS DAYS 1>7 BUT THE DETAILS WILL B LEFT
TO THE INDIVIDUAL HAZARD PRODUCTS THAT WE'RE ALL FAMILIAR WITH.
IT WILL BE IN A STANDARDIZED FORMAT AND WITH SKYWARN CTA'S.

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA MAY B REQ TUE FOR ALL BUT OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM
         MERRIMACK RIVER-PVC-ACK-MTK.

$$
DRAG

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eric N1QKO