[HCARC] Solar Cycle 25 is here.

[Kerry]

The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, co-chaired by NOAA and NASA has 
determined that the solar minimum between Cycle 24 and Cycle 25 happened 
in December 2019 with a 13 month smoothed sunspot number of 1.8.  The 
panel is predicting a peak smoothed sunspot number of 115 in 2025.  
Cycle 24 had a peak of 114.


Note that we are about 10 months past the peak and they just made the 
announcement today!  The predicted peak of 115 suggests that they expect 
this cycle to be essentially the same as the last one.  They said they 
don't expect we will be going into a long period of very low sunspots 
like the infamous Maunder Minimum.


This is just a prediction, by the way, and may be only slightly more 
accurate than any of the other recent predictions which vary from almost 
no sunspots to a very large cycle.  Until we really understand what is 
going on on the sun the predictions mean little.  You need to keep track 
of what is happening on the sun - there will be periodic outbursts which 
may last just a few days. The fun will be had by those who keep track of 
what the sun is doing.


Kerry, K5KS