[HCARC] Tropical storm Harvey

[Gary J - N5BAA]

1600 Local NHC Adisory - SEE SECTION UNDER "Hazards Affecting Land" RAINFALL 
FOR TEXAS HILL COUNTRY - 7-15 INCHES:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeast of Matagorda to
Sargent Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 93.9 West.  Harvey is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest is expected this evening, and Harvey's forward speed is
forecast to slow down during the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on
Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday.  Harvey is
then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become
a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas
coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data released by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the
same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.


-----Original Message----- 
From: Gary J - N5BAA
Sent: Thursday, August 24, 2017 3:47 PM
To: kd5wdq . ; sgriffin1 at windstream.net
Cc: Hcarc
Subject: Re: [HCARC] Tropical storm Harvey

Here is the latest from Accuweather Premium:

"Hurricane Harvey is going through rapid intensification over the Gulf of
Mexico about 330 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Sustained winds
are 85 mph with higher gusts. Harvey remains in an environment of lower
vertical wind shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures and deep, moist,
unstable air. Given these favorable conditions, Harvey should reach Category
3 hurricane strength Friday morning and should make landfall as a Category 3
hurricane along the coast of Texas early Saturday morning. It is possible
that Harvey will reach Category 4 strength on Friday. Any hurricane of
Category 3 or greater is considered a major hurricane. This would make
Harvey the first major land falling hurricane in the U.S. since 2005.
Harvey will generally move to the northwest over the next 24-48 hours and
reach the Texas coast early Saturday morning. At the time of landfall,
damaging winds will lead to extensive property damage, power outages, and
life-threatening conditions. Some power outages may last a week or more.
Just to the east of the center of Harvey, a storm surge inundation of 6-12
feet can lead to significant coastal flooding. Further strengthening will
lead to higher storm surge inundation.
After Harvey makes landfall, it will slow down and stall inland, possibly
for days, before moving slowly to the south or east. Harvey will produce
torrential rainfall over a long period of time across southern and eastern
Texas. Devastating and life-threatening flash flooding and prolonged river
flooding are likely with many places receiving over 8 inches of rain. Some
locations will receive over 24 inches of rain. Over the weekend, flooding
rain, coastal flooding will shift northward into Louisiana.
The combination of damaging winds and flooding from coastal inundation and
heavy rain will be disruptive to travel and commerce. Some oil refineries
will be shut down for an extended period of time causing short-term gasoline
shortages. "

73,

Gary J
N5BAA

-----Original Message----- 
From: Gary J - N5BAA
Sent: Thursday, August 24, 2017 3:38 PM
To: kd5wdq . ; sgriffin1 at windstream.net
Cc: Hcarc
Subject: Re: [HCARC] Tropical storm Harvey

And 2 days ago Harvey was a disorganized mass of clouds - no one knew what
he was going to do.  The storm is now predicted to reach Cat 3 intensity.
Harvey will go where Harvey wants to go.  Mostly the prognosticators are
guessing just like the rest of us.  I clearly remember the 52 inches of rain
at my QTH the week of July 2 2002 from a minor tropical system that got
stuck in south Texas.

One thing I have learned about South Texas weather is "big amounts" of rain
fall really quickly and without warning.  Had in excess of 4 inches in one
day 2 weeks ago.

73,

Gary J
N5BAA

-----Original Message----- 
From: kd5wdq .
Sent: Thursday, August 24, 2017 2:36 PM
To: sgriffin1 at windstream.net
Cc: Hcarc
Subject: Re: [HCARC] Tropical storm Harvey

Funny, the WX channel said you'd need to be to or past
"Kerrville" to miss the really big rain.

And they do mean BIG rain.  IMO, Kerrville will be mostly OK.


AF5SA




On 8/24/17, sgriffin1 at windstream.net <sgriffin1 at windstream.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>     I think this afternoon I going to put my g5rv down for the weekend 
> look
> like this tropical storm or possible hurricane Harvey may get dicey around
> here. Been looking on the National Weather Service Maps. And when you see
> San Antonio is under a tropical storm warning and we're not that far away.
> It looks like the storm is ramping up pretty quickly.WD5ENHSteve
> Happy Connecting.  Sent from my Sprint Phone.
>
>
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