[Hallicrafters] NASA Forecast

[Mike Lopez]

OK ! I was under the impression that the peak was nearer the end of the
cycle, falling off sharply at the 11 year mark. Don't know where I got that
idea from, apparently it is incorrect! This is the answer I had been looking
for. In my confused state, it looked like NASA was slinging some sort of
propaganda! See below response from Paul .
Thanks !!!
Mike

From: Paul 
Sent: Tuesday, December 06, 2011 9:41 PM
To: Mike Lopez
Subject: Re: [Hallicrafters] NASA Forecast

Mike,
 
I think you are expecting the solar cycle to be a bell shaped curve, with
the maximum 5.5 years on either side of the minimum, so that you believe the
maximum would be about 5.5 years from the middle of 2009, or around 2015 not
2012 as NASA indicates. Actually history has shown that while the solar
minimums are about 11 years apart, once the solar activity starts up, it
rises quickly (relatively speaking ) so that the maximum peak occurs only
two or three years after the minimum, and then slowly tapers down to the
next minimum. So a peak of 2012 would follow historical and statistical
trends, with the next minimum in the 2020 range.
 
73, 
 
Paul W2EC

--- On Mon, 12/5/11, Mike Lopez <n8azc at sssnet.com> wrote:

From: Mike Lopez <n8azc at sssnet.com>
Subject: [Hallicrafters] NASA Forecast
To: hallicrafters at mailman.qth.net
Date: Monday, December 5, 2011, 9:28 PM
This is from a NASA statement of Jan. 5, 2009 . Either I'm reading this
wrong, or this is the dumbest statement I've ever heard coming out of NASA :



"The sun is currently near the minimum of its 11-year activity cycle. It is
expected that solar storms will increase in frequency and intensity toward
the next solar maximum, expected to occur around 2012."



Mike N8AZC

______________________________________________________________
Hallicrafters mailing list
Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/hallicrafters
Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
Post: mailto:Hallicrafters at mailman.qth.net

List Administrator: Duane Fischer, W8DBF
** For Assistance: dfischer at usol.com ** 


This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html




----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Mike Lopez" <n8azc at sssnet.com>
To: <hallicrafters at mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Monday, December 05, 2011 6:28 PM
Subject: [Hallicrafters] NASA Forecast


> This is from a NASA statement of Jan. 5, 2009 . Either I'm 
> reading this
> wrong, or this is the dumbest statement I've ever heard 
> coming out of NASA :
>
>
>
> "The sun is currently near the minimum of its 11-year 
> activity cycle. It is
> expected that solar storms will increase in frequency and 
> intensity toward
> the next solar maximum, expected to occur around 2012."