[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 43

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 030300
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
BAYPORT SOUTHWARD.
 
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT FROM STUART TO KEY LARGO UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON SATURDAY IN
EXPECTATION OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE HURRICANE REACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. 

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. 
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N... 83.5 W.  MOVEMENT 
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 974 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...SATURDAY.
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN
NNNN

The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/030300m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/030300.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise