[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 39

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 020300
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU MAY 01 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED STRENGTHENING...WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSENING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION...
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING..
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTHWARD FROM BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
BAYPORT FLORIDA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUST NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...AT BOCA
RATON...TO STUART.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO BAYPORT.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD AND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FRIDAY MORNING.  DO NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE LOCATION AND TRACK OF
THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAIN COVER A WIDE
SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILFRED ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.  SQUALLS WILL BE INCREASING IN FREQUENCY
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  FOWEY
ROCKS LIGHT HOUSE...OFF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 77 MPH.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.  THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 79.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT...FRIDAY.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
NNNN
NNNN

The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/020300m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/020300.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise