[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 271200
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM AST SUN APR 27 2003

..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
   HEADING TOWARD LEEWARD ISLANDS... 

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA.
 
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  57.8 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES
..395 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
WILFRED HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLIER TODAY AND
PREPARATIONS THERE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  WILFRED IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO HURRICANE HUGO
WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 1989.  DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
  
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.
  
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...16.1 N... 57.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
 
LAWRENCE/PASCH

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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/271200m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/271200.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise