[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 20

Sun, 27 Apr 2003 05:00:01 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 270900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN APR 27 2003

..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
   HEADING TOWARD LEEWARD ISLANDS... 

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INCLUDE THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  57.1 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES
..470 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

WILFRED IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD AT 17 MPH...
28 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. 
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE
ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLIER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  WILFRED IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO HURRICANE HUGO
WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 1989.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.1 N... 57.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.

LAWRENCE

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.

NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/270900m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/270900.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise