[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 270000
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM AST SAT APR 27 2003

..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILFRED HEADING
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
DOMINICA NORTHWARD TO ANGUILLA...EXCEPT FOR THE FRENCH ISLAND OF ST.
BARTHELEMY AND THE FRENCH PORTION OF ST. MARTIN.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED COMPLETION.  

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST.
LUCIA...FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. BARTHELEMY
..FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND FOR PUERTO RICO.
 
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILFRED HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE WEST.  A WEST
TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR 18 MPH...29 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THOSE ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
 
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT WILFRED IS NOW AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WILFRED IS NOW SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND
SIZE TO EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE HUGO WHEN IT HIT THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IN 1989.
 
RECENT DATA INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED AND
NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 75 KM...160 KM...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR 5 PM AST...2100Z...WAS 938 MB...27.70
INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS. 
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...15.8 N...55.0 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD
..WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
 
MAYFIELD
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/270000m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/270000.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise