[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 18

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 262100
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT APR 26 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DIFFERENT
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM
DOMINICA NORTHWARD TO ANGUILLA EXCEPT FOR THE FRENCH ISLAND OF ST.
BARTHELEMY AND THE FRENCH PORTION OF ST. MARTIN WHICH REMAIN UNDER A
HURRICANE WATCH.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
COMPLETION.  
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST.
LUCIA...FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. BARTHELEMY
..FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND FOR PUERTO RICO.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  54.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES...725 KM...EAST OF
GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THOSE
ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
 
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT WILFRED IS NOW AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944
MB...27.88 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS. 
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.7 N... 54.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/262100m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/262100.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise