[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 14

Fri, 25 Apr 2003 17:00:03 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 252100
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI APR 25 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED BECOMING A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEADING FOR THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DIFFERENT
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
ST. LUCIA NORTHWARD TO ANGUILLA INCLUDING SABA AND ST. MAARTEN.
THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 825 MILES...
1330 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WILFRED IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
CATEGORY THREE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.7 N... 48.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

AVILA

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.

NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/252100m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/252100.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise