[FLARES] **ECOMM**

[Chris Myers]

Indian River County ACS is at Level One Alert as of 12:00 hours =
Wednesday, September 18, 2002.

Level One Alert:   Computer Models Indicate A Possible Threat To Our =
Operation Area.  Continue Monitoring Closely.

EVENT INFORMATION:=20
** RELEASE INFORMATION FROM IRCEOC**
TD #10 became Tropical Storm Isidore early this morning as the center =
moved away from Jamaica.  The center of Isidore is now located =
approximately 150 miles west-southwest of Jamaica and is moving in a =
northwest direction at 7mph.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for =
western Cuba and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for they Cayman =
Islands.  The attached satellite picture is the visible image.  The =
center is located on the western portion of the convection area.  You =
will see a small convection burst area west of Jamaica.  This is where =
the center is intensifying.  Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be in the =
area later today, but it is clear that this system is strengthening.  =
With this system in a good environment for further strengthening, we =
cannot rule out the development of a powerful hurricane by Saturday.  At =
this time, no watches or warnings are in effect for the United States.
=20
Not much has changed for the 48 hour forecast.  The attached map =
indicates the forecast center position on Saturday morning.  Last night =
and early this morning, the NOAA Jet Aircraft investigated the =
environment in the Gulf of Mexico.  They found that the high pressure =
ridge currently located over Florida and extending into the Gulf, is =
remaining somewhat stationary and strong.  This is why the forward =
motion of Isidore has slowed.  It appears this high pressure ridge will =
weaken by Friday.  This will allow Isidore to move more to the northwest =
and north.  The new data from the jet has been included in the latest =
model run.  Some of the models have adjusted the projections more to the =
west and some actually have indicated landfall in the northern Gulf =
states.  This remains a timing issue between the approaching frontal =
boundary in the midwest and where Isidore is located when the boundary =
approaches the Gulf of Mexico.
=20
No further modifications are expected to the forecast today.
=20
Nathan McCollum
Indian River County Emergency Management
** END OF RELEASE**

ARES/RACES:  Begin ARES/RACES Staff Notification
CAPCOMM-4:  No report
County Communication Team:  No report
MARS:  No report
SHARES:  No report
SKYWARN: Treasure Coast Skywarn Network on stand-by mode. NC. KA1VRF =
reporting over IRLP node 458 from CA. =20
REACT:  No report

COMMUNICATION DATA:
No Communication Nets are planed at this time.
=20
Florida State DCAT Equipment and Assets:
Unit ID                Status                  Location                  =
        Note                                            =20
COMM-1   Standing-By   Vero Beach,FL           =20
COMM-2   Standing-BY   Vero Beach,FL                  =20
APRS       Standing-By    Vero Beach,FL         =20

End of SITREP

Christopher A. Myers chris@wgylfm.com=20
1 Lt. CAP. Emergency Services Officer, TCCS FL-078=20
Communication Specialist, Central Florida DMAT/MST FL-6=20
Commander, Florida State DCAT/REACT/ARES/ACS=20
Emergency Coordinator, Indian River County ARES/RACES


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