[FLARES] **ECOMM MESSAGE**

[Chris Myers]

Indian River County ACS is at Level One Alert as of 13:00 hours Tuesday, =
September 17, 2002.

Level One Alert:   Computer Models Indicate A Possible Threat To Our =
Operation Area.  Continue Monitoring Closely.

EVENT INFORMATION:=20
** RELEASE INFORMATION FROM IRCEOC**
Tropical Depression #10 has redeveloped south of Jamaica.  The system is =
moving west-northwest near 10mph.  This system is expected to intensify =
over the next 72 hours as it moves over the Caribbean.  The water is =
very warm the wind shear is weakening.  We fully expect that this system =
could become a hurricane within the next 48 to 72 hours.  The general =
forecast shows a west-northwest track over the next 48 hours with a =
gradual turn to the northwest beginning Thursday.  The attached water =
vapor satellite image illustrates clearly what the steering currents =
will be for this system.  The ridge which is in south Florida ( the =
small dark area on the satellite picture) will weaken and allow a more =
northwest turn. Then a trough moving through Texas ( the large dark area =
along the Texas coastline) will begin to interact with TD # 10.  Now, =
the Florida peninsula will come into play.  Depending on the timing of =
the interaction and the strength, this system may move northeast and =
enter the peninsula over southwest Florida or it may move more northerly =
and enter in the Big Bend area.  It is too early to forecast what will =
happen past 48 hours.  This will be a day by day forecast.
=20
Everyone along the east coast should closely monitor this system.  I =
cannot rule out this system moving over our area.  Again, it is too =
early.  However, we will experience heavy rain activity beginning =
Thursday and continuing Friday & Saturday.  No matter what path this =
system takes, the heaviest rain will remain on the east side.  This =
means the peninsula will receive rain as the system moves toward the =
Gulf of Mexico.  No watches or warnings have been issued.
=20
Nathan McCollum
Indian River County Emergency Management
** END OF RELEASE**

ARES/RACES:  No report
CAPCOMM-4:  No report
County Communication Team:  No report
MARS:  No report
SHARES:  No report
SKYWARN: No report
REACT:  No report

COMMUNICATION DATA:
No Communication Nets are planed at this time.
=20
Florida State DCAT Equipment and Assets:
Unit ID                Status                  Location                  =
        Note                                            =20
COMM-1   Standing-By   Vero Beach,FL           =20
COMM-2   Standing-BY   Vero Beach,FL                  =20
APRS       Standing-By    Vero Beach,FL         =20

End of SITREP

Christopher A. Myers chris@wgylfm.com=20
1 Lt. CAP. Emergency Services Officer, TCCS FL-078=20
Communication Specialist, Central Florida DMAT/MST FL-6=20
Commander, Florida State DCAT/REACT/ARES/ACS=20
Emergency Coordinator, Indian River County ARES/RACES


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