[CW] MAJOR info on NEW solar info and what it means to (long, term) RF propagation and Climate.

Sat Jun 18 13:03:44 EDT 2011

If you look at the sunspot number plots going back to the 1700's, you can
see "beats" in the heights of the peaks.  Early 1800's & early 1900's are
rather low ... and then there was the famous Maunder minimum ...

So the Sun is a variable star.

We seem to be getting astrophysical explanations this time around, but the
evidence has been there.

73 Kate K6HTN

On Sat, Jun 18, 2011 at 9:57 AM, cod947 <k1vv at comcast.net> wrote:

> **
> Dave ... if you remember ...
>
> The experts predicted the same thing before the last cycle ...
>
> Whitey K1VV
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> *From:* D.J.J. Ring, Jr. <n1ea at arrl.net>
> *To:* CW Reflector <cw at mailman.qth.net>
> *Sent:* Saturday, June 18, 2011 10:04 AM
> *Subject:* [CW] MAJOR info on NEW solar info and what it means to (long,
> term) RF propagation and Climate.
>
> MAJOR info on NEW solar info and what it means to (long
> term) RF propagation and Climate.
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
> Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots
>
>
> by Kerry Sheridan - Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ET
>
> WASHINGTON (AFP) - For years, scientists have been predicting the
> Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of
> intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has
>
>
> suggested quite the opposite.
>
> According to three studies released in the United States on
> Tuesday, experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting
> down and heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the
>
>
> 17th century.
>
> The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower
> activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar
> Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.
>
> "This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate
>
>
> director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of
> the three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the
> American Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las
> Cruces, New Mexico.
>
>
> "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun
> point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the
> sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."
>
> Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The
>
>
> solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval
> of the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22
> years.
>
> Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one
>
>
> for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some
> time.
>
> "This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather
> which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate
> change," he told reporters.
>
>
> Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be
> a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly
> any sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the
> "Little Ice Age."
>
>
> "If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see
> for a few decades. That would affect everything from space
> exploration to Earth's climate," said Hill.
>
> Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles
>
>
> hurtling toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications,
> GPS systems and even airline controls.
>
> Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the
> world's modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as
>
>
> last week when a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection
> in the Earth's direction.
>
> The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot
> activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset
>
>
> the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to
> scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.
>
> "Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with
> changes in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith
>
>
> Lean, a solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.
>
> If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in
> temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler
> effect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The
>
>
> phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the last
> solar cycle.
>
> This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period
> 2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain
>
>
> approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the
> earth hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not
> involved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.
>
> A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters
>
>
> explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and
> found no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal
> solar fluctuations.
>
> "A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global
>
>
> warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors
> Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the
> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7
> Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the
>
>
> latter half of the 20th century.
>
> "Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of
> solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the
> distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted
>
>
> for only several decades or a century at most."
> _______________________________________________
>
>  David J. Ring, Jr., N1EA <http://www.qsl.net/n1ea/>
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>
>  ------------------------------
>
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