[CW] MAJOR info on NEW solar info and what it means to (long, term) RF propagation and Climate.

[cod947]

Dave ... if you remember ...

The experts predicted the same thing before the last cycle ...

Whitey K1VV 
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: D.J.J. Ring, Jr. 
  To: CW Reflector 
  Sent: Saturday, June 18, 2011 10:04 AM
  Subject: [CW] MAJOR info on NEW solar info and what it means to (long, term) RF propagation and Climate.


MAJOR info on NEW solar info and what it means to (longterm) RF propagation and Climate.----------------------------------------------------------Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots

by Kerry Sheridan - Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ETWASHINGTON (AFP) - For years, scientists have been predicting theSun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period ofintense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has

suggested quite the opposite.According to three studies released in the United States onTuesday, experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shuttingdown and heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the

17th century.The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and sloweractivity near the poles, said experts from the National SolarObservatory and Air Force Research Laboratory."This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate

director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings ofthe three studies were presented at the annual meeting of theAmerican Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in LasCruces, New Mexico.

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sunpoint in the same direction is a powerful indicator that thesunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The

solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the intervalof the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22years.Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one

for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for sometime."This is important because the solar cycle causes space weatherwhich affects modern technology and may contribute to climatechange," he told reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could bea second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardlyany sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the"Little Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll seefor a few decades. That would affect everything from spaceexploration to Earth's climate," said Hill.Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles

hurtling toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications,GPS systems and even airline controls.Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble theworld's modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as

last week when a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejectionin the Earth's direction.The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspotactivity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset

the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according toscientists who have published recent papers on the topic."Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically withchanges in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith

Lean, a solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation intemperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly coolereffect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The

phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the lastsolar cycle.This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain

approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why theearth hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was notinvolved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters

explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, andfound no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normalsolar fluctuations."A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global

warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authorsGeorg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the

latter half of the 20th century."Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum ofsolar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since thedistinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted

for only several decades or a century at most."_______________________________________________David J. Ring, Jr., N1EA
  SOWP, VWOA, OOTC, FISTS, CW-Ops, CFO, A1-OP, ex-FOC 1271 ARRL-LM
  Chat Skype: djringjr MSN: djringjr at msn.com AIM: N1EA icq: 27380609

  Radio-Officers Google Group -- Marine Morse Historic Recordings Page




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