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Seattle, WA  March 22, 2013
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP012
ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers over the past week (March 14-20) were
up 16.2 points to 101.1, while average daily solar flux remained
about the same, rising from 118.5 to 119. An eruption on March 15
caused a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) which struck Earth on March 17,
causing the planetary A index to jump to 46.

The predicted solar flux is 105 on March 22, 100 on March 23-27, 105
on March 28, 100 on March 29-30, 105 on March 31, 110 and 120 on
April 1-2, 125 on April 3-6, 120 on April 7-8, 115 on April 9, 110
on April 10-11, then 105, 100, 120, 115 and 110 on April 12-16.

The planetary A index is predicted to be 8 on March 22-23, 5 on
March 24-26, 12 on March 27-28, 10 on March 29, 5 on March 30
through April 16, and 8 on April 17.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts
the geomagnetic field will be quiet to active March 22, quiet to
unsettled March 23, quiet March 24, mostly quiet March 25, quiet
March 26, active to disturbed March 27-28, quiet to active March 29
and mostly quiet March 30-31.

He continues with quiet April 1-3, mostly quiet April 4, quiet April
5, quiet to unsettled April 6, quiet April 7, quiet to unsettled
April 8, quiet April 9, mostly quiet April 10, quiet to unsettled
April 11 and active to disturbed April 12.

Last weekend on March 16-18 the planetary A index was 10, 46 and 7.
How well did our sources of geomagnetic forecasts foresee this?