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Seattle, WA  November 30, 2012
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

The average daily sunspot number for the week was down nearly 38% to
78.9, when compared to last week's average, which was 126.9. The
average daily solar flux dropped nearly 13% to 121 from 138.9. The
seven day reporting period for these data ran from November 22-28.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 110 on November 30, 105 on
December 1, 100 on December 2-4, 105 and 115 on December 5-6, 120 on
December 7, 130 on December 8-11, 135 on December 12-15, 140 on
December 16-17, 135 on December 18-19, 130 on December 20-22, 120 on
December 23-24, 115 on December 25, 110 on December 26-28, 15 on
December 29-30, 120 on December 31, 125 on January 1-2 and 130 on
January 3-7.

The current activity and forecast for the next few days is better
than predictions we saw earlier in November.  From November 5-18 we
presented predictions showing the solar flux going below 100 on
November 27 through December 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 and 8 on November 30 through
December 1, 5 on December 2-6, 10 on December 7-8, then 5 and 8 on
December 9-10, 5 on December 11-15, 8 on December 16, 5 on December
17-31.  The New Year is expected to begin slightly unsettled with
predicted planetary A index at 10 on January 1-4. The following days
through January 13 have a predicted A index of 5, except for January
6 and 12, with a predicted planetary A index of 8.

OK1HH, F.K. Janda of the Czech Propagation Interest Group says the
geomagnetic field should be quiet to unsettled November 30, mostly
quiet December 1, quiet to unsettled December 2-3, quiet to active
December 4, mostly quiet December 5-7, quiet December 8, quiet to
active December 9-11, quiet December 12, quiet to unsettled December
13-14, mostly quiet December 15, quiet to unsettled December 16,
quiet to active December 17, mostly quiet December 18, quiet
December 19, quiet to active December 20-21, and quiet on December
22.

Dick Grubb, W0QM of Boulder, Colorado sent some information
forwarded some information on D-region absorption, which is
interesting to look at when there is a Sudden Ionospheric
Disturbance (SID) event.

He sent this plot showing HF attenuation during the disturbance
described by the PT0S operator in last week's Propagation Forecast
Bulletin ARLP047:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/data/2012/11/21/SWX_DRAP20_C_SWPC_20121121153300_GLOBAL.png.

Backing up the URL hierarchy, we come to this directory:

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/data/