[CALV-AUXCOMM] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819

[Eric Christensen]

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF  VA...NERN WV...MD...SCNTRL AND SERN PA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051714Z - 051845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD IS PROMOTING DIABATIC HEATING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM VA NWD INTO SCNTRL PA. DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BAND OF CONVECTION FROM
WV THROUGH WCNTRL PA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTERACTS WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. A
BELT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR...WITH VWPS INDICATING 40-45 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR IN THIS REGION. DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE
AHEAD OF THE LINE DUE TO WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND SOME OF
THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE
RELATIVELY SMALL DUE TO VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE LINEAR MODES...BUT SOME HAIL AND AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE
ACTIVITY.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 06/05/2016


ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   40947523 38217648 36687748 36898066 39517832 40947665
               40947523
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