[CALV-ARES] [New post] Winter Storm Update

Mon Jan 26 10:05:15 EST 2015

Post       : Winter Storm Update
URL        : https://ares.k3cal.org/2015/01/26/winter-storm-update/
Posted     : January 26, 2015 at 10:03 am
Author     : Eric Christensen
Tags       : snow, winter weather
Categories : Weather

https://ares.k3cal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Heavy_snow.png Weather Overview
The weather forecast is improving as the storm approaches us. Some areas are expecting upwards of 37 inches of snow in blizzard conditions. Luckily that isn't us. Yesterday's issued Winter Weather Watch, which was set to go into effect at 6PM today, has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory ( http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ018&warncounty=MDC009&firewxzone=MDZ018&local_place1=Huntingtown%20MD&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=38.6158&lon=-76.6133 ) . The advisory, however, is set to go into effect at 4PM.

While the watch spoke of a potential of greater than 5 inches of snowfall accumulation, the advisory, and related forecast discussion, speaks of 2-4 inches. Gale warnings are in effect for the Bay near Calvert County so very windy conditions are expected along with this storm.
Activation Forecast
At this time I believe there is a low risk for activation of ARES. Of course, until it's all over with we cannot be sure. This would be a fantastic time to charge up any batteries you may have and test out any comm gear that you don't usually use. Please monitor 146.985 - (Tone 156.7Hz) as much as possible during the event.  If you lose power or other services please let me know.  ARES is here as much for our served agencies as we are for each other.

If you are a SKYWARN spotter or a CoCoRaHS station please make sure you are reporting your conditions, as necessary.
Additional Weather Discussion
A great resource to read to see into the mind of the meteorologist who is putting out the forecasts and advisories is the Area Forecast Discussion ( http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off ) . These notes are used primarily as a tool for exchanging information between weather forecast offices but is available for everyone to read. The authors are sometimes very candid in their descriptions and allows customers an insight into what went into the nice, clear forecast that is available on the website (why is there a big snowflake showing up for Monday night?). I'll quote from this morning's discussion to outline what we're seeing now and for the rest of the day:
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS
MORNING. COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILTER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELEGATED MOSTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
AND POINTS JUST SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO THE CAROLINA COAST A BIT LATER TODAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
DRIVE THE COLD AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
What I would suggest taking from this is "watch the temperature". Hopefully everyone can be safely home before the temperatures really dip causing the rain to shift to snow.  I'll end this update with another quote from the discussion:
...EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED.
Stay safe, everyone.

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