[CALV-ARES] [New post] ALERT: Severe weather probable today

[Calvert County Auxiliary Communications Services via CALV-ARES]

Post       : ALERT: Severe weather probable today
URL        : https://ares.k3cal.org/2015/04/10/alert-severe-weather-probable-today/
Posted     : April 10, 2015 at 9:53 am
Author     : Eric Christensen
Categories : ALERT, Weather

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/
As of 9AM, this morning, the Storm Prediction Center ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ )  has our area in the Slight category ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/Outlook-category-descriptions.png )  for severe thunderstorms today.  These are the same storms that dropped sixteen tornadoes on Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana (among other places) yesterday.  Current risk for tornadoes is low (around 2%) at this time but higher (around 15%) for large hail and damaging winds.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO
CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TO GULF COAST STATES.  A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A
RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH --COMPRISED OF MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA-- WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ERN QUEBEC AND THE NERN U.S. BY
12Z/SAT.  AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THIS
UPPER-AIR SYSTEM OVER THE U.P. OF MI AS OF 12Z WILL DEVELOP NEWD
INTO QUEBEC WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THIS LOW CONTINUES
EWD/SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD AND GULF COAST STATES.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  

...MID-ATLANTIC INTO CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND PRESENT FROM
THE UPPER-OH VALLEY INTO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS OF 12Z IS FASTER THAN
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING THE REMNANTS OF THESE
STORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...THE SRN EXTENSION OF A SWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN THE
POLEWARD FLUX OF HEAT AND MOISTURE E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH
AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/JG ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. THIS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONTS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT.

A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RANGING
FROM 40-50 KT OVER THE DELMARVA TO 30-35 KT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
VA...PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF MD WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED.
Please keep an eye to the sky and ear to NOAA All-Hazards Radio ( http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/ )  and to 146.985.  I'll try to post additional information as it becomes available.

-- 


Manage Subscriptions
https://subscribe.wordpress.com/?key=206e7ef745c41a9d805b19a6c6231511&email=calv-ares%40mailman.qth.net

Unsubscribe:
https://subscribe.wordpress.com/?key=206e7ef745c41a9d805b19a6c6231511&email=calv-ares%40mailman.qth.net&b=Ld-%7CEC9%3FrHIzrQVnP27A%5Bni.nOxKfqimvY%5DeJ%26lnYsS.8T3A4m-

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/calv-ares/attachments/20150410/012c7f75/attachment-0001.html>