[CALV-ARES] [New post] Severe weather potentially on its way.

[Calvert County Auxiliary Communications Services via CALV-ARES]

Post       : Severe weather potentially on its way.
URL        : https://ares.k3cal.org/2015/04/09/severe-weather-potentially-on-its-way/
Posted     : April 9, 2015 at 12:26 pm
Author     : Eric Christensen
Categories : ALERT, Weather

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1428596865308
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma is predicting the possibility of strong thunderstorms over the period of 8AM Friday morning to 8AM Saturday morning.

> ...MID AND SRN ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST REGIONS INTO TX...
> SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING IN A BROAD/ARCING ZONE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OH/TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO TX. THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING/AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IN MANY AREAS...BUT NONETHELESS EXPECT SUFFICIENT CAPE INCREASE THROUGH PEAK HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL STATES.
>
> AS STORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE ERN NOAM TROUGH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION LOCALLY. AS SUCH...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG MOST OF THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT -- FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SWWD.
>
> RISK WILL DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT -- IN THE E AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES OVERNIGHT. LIMITED SEVERE RISK MAY HOWEVER LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS TX...AS A SELY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

The majority of these storms appear to be possible starting Friday at noon going into the evening hours, around 8PM, and tapering off to less than a slight chance after 11PM.

The main threat appears to be hail and damaging winds.  Additional information can be found on the Storm Prediction Center's website ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ )  and I'll try to update the team on any changes later this evening.  If there aren't any major changes by then the next update will come tomorrow morning when we'll have a better idea of the instability, temperatures, and moisture content.

As always, keep your ear tuned to the primary operations repeater, 146.985, and to NOAA All-Hazards Radio ( http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/ ) .

-- 


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