[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

[ClayMayrose at aol.com]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER  SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005



THIS HAZARDOUS  WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN  OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE  THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER A LARGE PART OF  CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
OKLAHOMA. 

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS  EAST OF A LINE FROM ARCHER CITY TEXAS...TO 
LAWTON...TO WEATHERFORD...TO  BUFFALO.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL  BE LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT.  

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING  STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A 
FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS  SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE 
WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE  EVENING 
HOURS.

PEOPLE INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON  IN THE SLIGHT 
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY.  

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER  NORTHEASTERN NEW 
MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AT MID AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE  EXTENDED 
FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THROUGH FAR WESTERN  
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY  
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY 
CONTINUE  TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 PM  AND 6 PM ALONG THE 
DRYLINE...AND MOST LIKELY WILL EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A  SQUALL LINE. 
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE  THIS 
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER  
TONIGHT. 

SINCE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY INTO  A SQUALL 
LINE... THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE  
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 
AND  SOMEWHAT DEFICIENT MOISTURE...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT 
INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO IN ANY 
ISOLATED STORMS EARLY  IN THE EVENT...OR IN SUPERCELL STORMS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE SQUALL  LINE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY APR  11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN  THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT. 
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS  IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

WITH  STRONG WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY 
LINE...SOUTHWEST  OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
SEE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME  FIRE DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH  SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE  INTO MONDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO  THE CENTER OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  BEYOND MONDAY... IS FROM THURSDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER  HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER  OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM 
ON MONDAY...APRIL  11.

$$

24/SMITH