[ARRL-OK] FW: [CentralOKARES] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[D C Macdonald]

----Original Message Follows----
From: "Matthew Engelbrecht" <Matthew.Engelbrecht at ci.edmond.ok.us>
To: <centralokares at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [CentralOKARES] Hazardous Weather Outlook
Date: Sun, 10 Apr 2005 08:02:50 -0500

000
FLUS44 KOUN 101201
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101700-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS
JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
FREEDOM... TO WATONGA... TO ANADARKO... TO WAURIKA... AND INCLUDES
ENID... STILLWATER... ARDMORE... AND THE ENTIRE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA. JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA... A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM BUFFALO... TO
WOODWARD... TO WEATHERFORD... TO LAWTON... TO WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM ALONG A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
AND ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE WITHIN
A FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT.  THE SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  1 TO 2
INCH DIAMETER HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DOING DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... VEHICLES AND TREES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
PEOPLE PLANNING TO PARTICIPATE IN OUTDOOR OR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
TODAY SHOULD STAY CURRENT WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION... AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE SAFETY ACTION WHEN SEVERE STORMS
APPROACH. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND OUTDOOR
EVENT ORGANIZERS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE LATE MORNING.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON... THE
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM
BUFFALO... TO WOODWARD... TO CLINTON... TO JUST WEST OF WICHITA
FALLS.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE... WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.  DUE TO
THE EXPECTED STORM EVOLUTION TO A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW
ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS... THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  THE TORNADO THREAT APPEAR LIMITED TODAY BY RATHER
WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT DEFICIENT MOISTURE.
HOWEVER... DISCRETE CELLS EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT... OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THREAT OF TORNADOES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY APR 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
               NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY... FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE... AND FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE.

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND MONDAY... IS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

$$
  MILLER


Disclaimer:  While this E-mail is the property of the City of Edmond, 
Oklahoma, the views and opinions expressed herein are the sender’s and may 
not reflect the official position of the City of Edmond.

City of Edmond, Oklahoma
P.O. Box 2970  Edmond, Oklahoma  73083  405-348-8830

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